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The Wolf Of All Streets
Are We In A Bear Or A Bull Market? | What To Expect From Bitcoin
Are We In A Bear Or A Bull Market? | What To Expect From Bitcoin

Are We In A Bear Or A Bull Market? | What To Expect From Bitcoin

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Scott Melker, Willy Woo
26 Clips
Dec 21, 2021
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This episode of The Wolf of Wall Street's podcast is sponsored by Horizon. The h-bar foundation and whale fin please stay tuned for more information on all three of them later in the episode.
What's up, everybody? I'm Scott melkor. And this is The Wolf of Wall Street's podcast for twice a week. I talked to your favorite personalities from the worlds of Bitcoin Finance trading music art Sports politics. Basically anyone with a good story to tell today's guest absolutely needs no introduction and has been one of the favorites on the show before Willie, Woo is a famous on chain analyst, has his own strategies and models and has generally been nailing the market for many.
Many years Willie. Thanks so much for coming back on the show.
No worries, credit to be back. Mr. Wolf.
I'm glad to have you. So listen, I don't want to get into too much into the specifics of what's happening in the Market at this exact moment, but we've obviously seen some diminished some diminished price movement over the past few months while there was a large expectation of a, I believe it was up Tobar Moon. Vembur. I don't know what we were calling December, but
Obviously, we've seen some price drop. Do you still think that the Bull Run is largely intact?
Yeah, I think it's partly structurally still intact, you know, it's a symbol was you know, I'm told it was going to be soft from the institutional money. I want to cash out and book, their profits and a little guys that want to redeploy. And you know, I'm hearing that it's kind of the January story. So in those so we've got the text sell off.
Called of regime right now. So yeah, like these sort of news and narrative fundamentally week for December, but I'm, you know, like if we're looking over the next six months structurally. It's pretty strong.
Yeah, like then, you know what gives me confidence about that is that these are really a lot of coins that have been moved to a long-term holders who have held the coins for five months from or. And so they are at maximum accumulation there slowly divesting as they do, is the price runs up, they take some profits, but predominantly the coins are with the long-term orders and bear markets, don't usually start until
Like dad's out of the long-term holders of divested. And then our national team holder category with those weekends are much more prone to dumping was going out. And the last sort of Crash, we get from the, you know, the 60s, low 60s to the eventually the 29,000 was when we with like those long-term holders had completely exhausted. And so, yeah, like we're currently
Pretty charged up with both. Those guys holding on to the coins. So depending on how quickly they divest, I think we've got anything from three to six months of a run. Maybe longer. Just have to see
when you see them divesting. We generally see the same Wales re accumulating at the bottom, right? It's not an exhibit from Bitcoin. It's not an exit from the market. It's not disinterest in crypto. It's just an opportunity for them to make a whole lot of money right there. See an opportunity to sell it a high and they're the same ones, re buying and reinvigorating to do both.
Exactly, and we're not really tracking individual participants in that kind of model. So I see it as like different way. So people coming in, they come in, they hold like, wait for the rally, they take your profits. And, you know, the if you go back and you look at five months from now that was really in the fifty thousand dollar range with after it dumped in those guys, you know, how will enter now and I'm divesting and taking their profits and was very similar, last sort of five.
A month, so I leave these these alternating Cycles. When new people come in, they get, they get the Run, they sell, and then people buy into the rallies and they experienced the dump sometimes and then they get their tune. But in this case is other data that I'm looking at they had. So it's showing I know it's the guys that dumped at the 60,000, when we went down to 29 back in may they were
I first, these kind of people, they were accumulating and then they completely dumped out. And now with more of the forensics Matrix of supply shops. We we can actually see the different categories of holders. A whole lot of, you know, strong handed accumulators were lost and then they sort of popped up in the spectacle of swing trade, sort of Matrix. So I think what's happened is
A lot of the smart, you know, well, well, banked money with a hedge funds or family offices did by the ten thousand dollar range and to 20,000 sold at the 60, and they re accumulated, as it was coming down from the 40s to the 30s. So there's we got a lot of seems like sophisticated swing Traders now that I'm playing the market. So it's looking quite different from what we saw in 2017 and Cycles before.
For, it's quite interesting. This whole cycle. Never seen anything like this before.
What do you think accounts for the fact that it's changed so much? Is it because the market is becoming more efficient or we're getting more sophisticated players, right? Perhaps before the whales were, you know, young traders who had just gotten rich in the early 2010's and now we're getting you know institutional guys with complicated algorithms that are taking tools from other markets and coming in. And is that part of the in
To--to tional
wave. Yeah, I think that says gosh I think like if you were to look back in the Deep history of geological Bitcoin time, really the early guys were the that the ticos, you know, the guys that in mind it and then, you know, with the Silk Road and so forth, you hit the Libertarians, you had the very early smart money. I think came in 2016. 17, when I started looking Bitcoin articles popped up around the Winklevoss.
TF in 2017 and saw a lot of that kind of, you know, like cohort come in and then now then we had the derivatives come in with bit makes and the ancient of the Perpetual Swap and like and by I'd say 2019 2020, we have infrastructure here for institutional's. And so now we're really deep into this. We we got family officers. We've got large hedge funds.
Mutual funds now, Sovereign wealth, sort of coming in like El Salvador's the first Sovereign Nation to accumulate and so it's a lot different in the instruments of different. Now, we've got nine the the perps but we've got a very well-developed options and Futures markets, where options aren't quite as liquid, but that coming and you got the ET at their backs. Onto the see me like a regulated you exchanged.
lot of Institutions worldwide deploying through like Futures instruments because it's fully regulated and it's very easy for them. So I think it's the whole things changed, right? And how that demand and Supply food through to the underlying asset is through different chain. And you know, like anyone who's been on the market, since 2018 notice is notice that the price shape has changed and the moves of
Very sharp and their liquidation events and that's a signature of Futures being dominant. And so it's a very different kind of environment now. And yeah, it's much more complex.
Yeah, it's much more complex. And, you know, as you sort of touched on Futures are driving the market. But it still feels like we're very early in what could be as far as the complexity of the derivatives that are available and
You know, the size that people are trading with which is encouraging in my mind. Right? A venture. I think there's still a whole lot of inefficiencies in the market. That's why we see these liquidation Cascades because big players, still know how to make a whole lot of money by, you know, moving the market. I think eventually that's all gonna disappear but it which is probably better for investors and institutions, but probably will actually make it less exciting market for Traders.
Yeah. I think a part of the what you might call excitement is
is the majority of the volume is unregulated and it is all sorts of fun Trader tactics to shove the price around which, you know, and that kind of outlawed and regulated exchanges. So what we see in Bitcoin, a lot is kind of some of the large players and, you know, putting up by walls, cell walls and kind of shipping your pricer around, which is like, how to do in a regulated environment.
So it is it is particularly volatile because you know large whales out there to like take you out and looking at where retails position and they're going well that honorable, let's take him out. And so that's the game that's creating this volatility. And on the other side of that, you've got this crazy amounts of an efficiency that's boot up as a price Works. Thousands of dollars, but over a minute.
And you know that opens a lot of spreads they can be closed by Arbitrage plays and and so we get this other side where traditional people don't, you know, some institution and want to be exposed to bitcoin, but they see the kind of yields they can get by running AB across the in efficiencies. And so now we got like if we did not even interested in Bitcoin coming in because they can they just want to pick up the money like they can get 20 40 60
And you've seen plus annualize yield on the US Dollars, which kind of shits all over anything, you can get in the traditional world. So, you know, that's bringing more players in springing. They generally have to hold the underlying and a lot of the strategies that are doing. So it's bringing money into the system. By the volatility is almost, you know, honey pot to bring in traditional money. He's not even interested in Bitcoin. Yeah,
and which is so interesting.
Ting, when you put it in that context because the big story for the maximalist and those of us who have been around for a while, was always microstrategy and Tesla, they're buying Bitcoin, and they're putting it on their balance sheet. And we haven't seen much of a repeat of that. Right? And I think there was this expectation, that we would keep seeing companies buying, but to your point, that's not really where the money is to be made, right? If you're if you're a hardcore believer in the inflation hedge, maybe you buy Bitcoin, put on your balance sheet, but right now,
Shell's money is coming in, but not in the way that maybe many people expected they're coming in as you said, like with the free free money on a cash and carry trade Arbitrage, strategies like that. But also you look at the amount of VC money that's pouring in and it's absolutely insane. Every single day. I see some news report of some fundraising another billion dollars or some new unicorn. I think that's really the institutional adoption narrative. Now, it's them investing in the picks and shovels approach investing in The Exchange.
Has and the infrastructure and the platforms and they don't even why buy Bitcoin. If you can buy a company that's going to be huge for pennies on the
dollar. Yeah, like these the picks and shovels and the VC game that probably not interested in Bitcoin. Now like a coin, we do 100 x from now, it's five million dollars per coin and you know, 100 x isn't that exciting to at least see that are interested in 2008. There are over eight years five to eight years in.
His legs and so, why not back something? That's nice and take higher risk and get that kind of return, you know, people who had bought. So I don't know what sort of bought it. So Anna's seed round was 20 cents and a week to 2 and chapter 3 was bad though. Yeah. I
just talked to Kyle some money yesterday about that. And I think they had three rounds is that in here as he recorded four cents, five cents and 20 cents was the last round and they were, I let all of them. So yeah,
see now, that's the stuff.
You can see why that kind of situation when he's coming in. I mean, that translates to a lot of development in, you know, experiments of defy layer one protocols. And, you know, I'm all for that. Actually. I'm like, I like the Novation that's happening. I think, you know, in the Bitcoin ecosystem, we like to where we dislike this kind of stuff because we're so viewed as anything that's not Bitcoin. As, you know,
You're probably asking which now it's legitimately, is you look at something deeply appreciates, that offering two million percent that may be why whatever around that running this thing to suck in a lot of people into getting these yields and then I took, you know, does become like a, you know, like a game of chicken who gets out first. Sure. So there's a lot of it but there is a lot of innovation is happening as well. And I think, you know, they bit exciting.
But yeah, that's interesting. Isn't it? It's like a lot of institution, man. He's coming through DC side. I actually think with microstrategy. They broke add this, they broke into this area and now that brokering this and then now it's very easy to buy a convertible Bond offering from microstrategy or even just by the underlying stock for a few, any simply 500 company, and you want some sort of Bitcoin exposure. Just why not just click one button.
By Gordon, broker by the microstrategy offering, whatever there is a bond or the underlying equity mean don't have to deal with like, figuring out cold storage, the regulations, because regulations worry there. You can buy a stock, you can buy Bond offering for your treasury. It's just, you know, cut six months from your, you know, you know, due diligence work you have to do from a board level. So like II
I don't think that when Mike's Treasures, buying more and more and more Bitcoin, that it's just like hiding within this, as I actually think this is Fortune 500's buying in.
Yeah, I agree. Why do yourself, if you don't let Michael do it for you,
right? Yeah. Michael going to do it for you and he's happy to do so, right? So we should be celebrating on our, the company board and we don't know who it is, but and there's probably good on the buying side.
To say that they want that legal or, you know, privacy around the treasury. Potentially. I don't know. I don't know enough about how public up companies operate and exactly how they place the treasury. But yeah.
Yeah, and I think what's so interesting also about sort of these VC deals and the opportunities to get in early that people don't realize, you know, if you buy the invest Venture Capital into a company in your way.
Waiting for not in crypto and you're waiting for some sort of exit event, right? To be able to cash in. That's always been the model. You invest, your pray for your hold for a really long time. In most of these VC deals are coins. People are actually getting liquid relatively fast. It doesn't mean that they're selling, but they actually have assets at that actually have access to their coins, right? So in theory you get the benefit of being early and you get the flexibility to exit whenever you want. I mean, that's got to be very, very
Active to institutional money that hasn't experienced that
before. Yeah. It's like us the investment side who down by the third, you know, I like usually maybe that's called six years to get to a liquidity event. Now. It's like two years sometimes one, a lot of the vesting schedules around one year. So it starts to get ridiculous because the discounts are so high. That is just a no-brainer. It's just very little risk, especially if you're allowed to be see, put your name on it, your clout. We'll just literally opened.
Wars Community rally into it. So it's a way of monetizing. Your clout should be able to get an easy 10 x upwards if you just want to dump the first listing, and so yeah, it's it's so definitely unfair Advantage. I think of a few other Runners fund. I see these two kind of view of people ways of making money. One is the VC side where your closest to the Project's. No one else can get access. So you've got a start.
Now the other side is the trade you can lose which is arbitrage. You know, that's a lemaitre's. Well that run on a Mac and making and yeah that are like, you know Quant rated computer algorithms in. So every trade is a winner and everything else is taking a lot of risk, you know, like directional risk. So like I think those are the two years of legs, you can run a fun.
They these two are repeated, one is the VC game, which takes a year and it's more liquid than what they used to but it still, but it's mainly a liquid, they have to weigh. The other words, the extreme liquidity and everything else is what I guess most retail Traders have to
do is a everybody else is swimming somewhere in the middle. Yeah, strikes on one side. I guess you mail. Something Heather just try to survive. They gave him frog.
And the rest, the rest are really, really effectively the food The Flash game. That's right.
Yeah. It's so true. But you mentioned before, when we were talking more about Bitcoin. Obviously that the longer term holders have moved their coins into cold storage and they're not really divesting as much at the moment. One of the huge narratives and you said the word Supply shock right supply-side shock. That's been one of the huge narratives over the past few months, but I haven't really heard anyone talking about that as much.
Much anymore. Is it still happening? And it's just cease to be a narrative or is that there's something that's changed on the supply
side. The something that has definitely changed. We're constantly seeing more and more coins. Move off the exchanges.
And the weird things happening, right? I'm prices and following and you know, I use glass no data and they have something called liquid Supply and also measures like it kind of does a forensic trace of all of the participants and figures out all the addresses and goes our. That's one person that's my place. And and then let's look at the history and they can kind of characterize the guys that aren't selling in the guys that are seen.
Selling in the type of guys that a totally speculative and violent activity and it used to be for a long time. The liquid guys that I just stacking was very correlated to the exchange exchange and balances like as more and more coins. Got when off the exchanges, you know, they they were actually liquid Supply. Their liquid Supply was tracking them very closely. But nowadays, it's not, there's a Divergence. I'm not sure what that is.
Has maybe this new animal of Swing Traders are you know, they're pulling off to the exchanges. I'm not sure you but if you when I look at supply shop. I really look at the liquid Supply. We've got a forensic trace of their behavior and we're not at the levels. We were prior to me. It looks like that if you to run the calculation using glass and those workbench, but there's some amount of drift that happens.
Spectator. Because if you think about how, you know, if you were to withdraw money until a new address, you have no clue whether that's a new person ratings are skinny person and eventually your honor that's that's Bob with a. We can see that now. So it wasn't a new person and so there's your find that it's over-optimistic is coins. Moving into a new to a new wallet. That's obviously a liquid because you never seen them spin those coins and then later you go RNA. That's the that's bold.
You know, someone, we know and then so, there's an actual drift down in the liquid Supply. Is that the data had ends up. So, Like A View to run the calculations, it says, what will time? Hi. We're at all time high of Supply shock, but if you account for that drift, which I do and it was a surprising, we're not. Well, we're about, you know, the kind of supply shop. We had back in January, December.
Back when the price was maybe 40,000 to 50,000. I would say 50 to 55 thousand 45. Let's say 45 55 thousand is the level of supply shop that were were historically at it. Not at all time high. Nothing like we had at say March of this year. So I am. I'm still waiting for their good dude.
Yeah, so that means that we've still got some more upside, which is a good thing.
Yeah, I'm not like us to break through that. Also my mind, just keep going. But yeah, it's a lot like what what you don't want to see is that start to move to the other side where it's reducing because that's, that's kind of a lot of softness in the market. And it's been strengthening and just this with this recent, just prior to the recent dip. There's there was a little bit of softening in that Supply shock.
But nothing to be like to say, we're going to crash right now. So I'm waiting for that to strengthen a lot through to January.
But that said, all of the models that have become so popular, that have specific prices attached to specific dates, right? I mean, obviously, it doesn't matter. Right? What matters is the overall trend. The things that you're talking about. It doesn't matter if we hit this price by this day, that doesn't invalidate for. I think a lot of new people.
You know, I love Plan B. I love candy obviously, you know, but a lot of people saw like a him nail that price for a few months and then acted on the assumption that, you know, 98k and November 135 65, whatever. His December were inevitable, right? And I think if you've been here a while, you might say those prices actually are inevitable. Just be a little more patient.
Yeah, anything can happen these Max? I had a full model to yeah, it's all about the one that broke technically in my view of the
Break, I'll just tell you it did right? Like the model only works during a bull market and when they break silly songs of the vierge packet and it broke when 50,000 dollar broke. And then we cascaded down, and we're not actually, in a bull market. Right now was sitting up for the bull market because they models not crossed over into a floor. They will hold yet. And yeah, like
with the these new derivative
instruments like man, you know.
What do we crash from? Six thousand or three thousand back in 20, telling the 2018? Right? That's the power of derivatives, you know, it was like 48 hours and a three thousand dollar drive, just obscene drop, and it's going to break any model. Like, like my models, work off on chain and fundamental spot man, and you kind of think of that as like what the price will mean revered around like you can build a model around demand and Supply unchain, that's where the, you know long-term investors.
The whole like value it, and when it drops lower, then eventually they come in and they buy it up and though. Yeah, so going to gets too high. Maybe they'll solve some, but everything else is around and walk of, you know, used to be liquidations of retail on button X. And then I was liquidation of retail on finance and it's just crazy, whoop, soaring. And there's no sense. The Mac that I will win this game of Traders using hugely.
Average to take the other guys out until you get too far, you know, you get too far out of that being the fundamentals. Do come in and people will spot buy-in from. Oh and like we didn't recently, you know, when we had that latest pull back below 40 times even 42 on some exchanges retail bought that really they went and bought it spot. You can see that on chain. So the models work, they work but they any
Price tag, it's Risky Business and time, you know, timing like to say like it's the staff is very much, you know, no one can predict price in time. If you do it, you're lucky. If you do it consistently. Well, then you're probably a whale making sure that your big wins which you do in options market, right? We know that we know that I'm big getting on the strike price.
This, let's make that happen and then I get my cat and you can cash out, and then I'll let it go find as a norm again. So,
but what you just described that mean that's the argument for the end of the 2017 bull market. Right? Was that CME Futures were launched and it was very, and it was relatively illiquid on the future side, but you could Garrett. Basically, if you had enough Bitcoin you could very much easily guarantee that your futures bet was going to be
correct? Yeah. Say, yeah. It's so, you know, I'm going back to this whole time.
Then price, which everyone on the Buddha seems obvious for forget on a lot of shows and they
say this price tag of
that price Target. It's like, no, I just gave a model and that's what the monks puts out on upper bound if we top out at this random date, but like
It doesn't matter for an investor like you don't really want to know time and date. That's kind of like the Newton the the new becoming in going whenever it's this price. I'm going to sell and they don't
because you've been cutting
motion and what you need to know. What's much more valuable as we currently in a yo-yo string. Yes. Good buy more. Is that softening? Okay, take them.
Consideration and I have to rebalance, maybe I'm going to like, you know, consider my risk, you know, everything is about adjusting your risk, you know, your risk exposure. So yes, we're in a strong market then we can allocate more. We may even need some leverage. Small amount of Leverage. You know, I always say if you're going to add leverage then when this, you know, really know what you're doing in the doing like three years T names. I'm going you want to handle any kind of pull back.
Back or even 50, 60 percent leverage. It means it's way low leverage. When I don't speak to a tax. It's all risk. It's all about risk. I could the I have seen many Traders go win when when and then they think that a bit in the rissalah market, which they probably are well winning trade after trade, but then they wiped out and fully liquid Aiden a 0, you know, yeah, that's we'll just handle.
Brisk, and so, that's what this these models are really best used for us. Like, we're in an area, where you can go risk on because it's strong, strong here is risk off and then take some money off the table reallocate. I mean, I'm even a I know we hate and we should Auntie it but I, you know, I still have a team seed, packet and cash
it all times II. Believe in 15, I believe we have. Did you can't? You can't buy the dip if you don't have money, right? And furthermore.
Or we now live. We're now in a market where you can park u.s. DC or USD tea or whatever with yield instead of going to dollars. Right?
Exactly. Christine Team Cena had more and it's always in yield and I'm uh, I'm trying to get above money printing. Right? Which is I think 37 percent year-on-year currently. So if you can get a 37% you good luck to you but then Andres we can these maggots, right? We can
So let me know, as long as my cash is getting yield. That is somewhat close to the inflation monetary day, though. Lucien rate. I'm fine. Kayaking in cash. And like, you know, I think 15 is, that's actually my target as well. Tink? Seen is the bare minimum. That is my reach threshold. Yeah. So
I like to Target. I mean, it doesn't, it it changes a lot, you know, and I don't rebounds as much as I always did. But
I always believed, you know, 70% Investments. Don't touch it for me. That was always Bitcoin sort of the game, some etherium, and whatever was left over from great trades, right? Otherwise 15% to speculate and 15 percent in cash. But that was emotionally. So much more difficult in previous Cycles when you didn't have the yield. To me, that's like maybe the most groundbreaking thing that nobody talks about it. This Market is that in 2017? When I want to take profit, I had to somehow suffered through mentally. The idea of going into dollars in the whole reason. I was in Bitcoin.
Because I didn't want dollars but now like I said, you're going to USD see? Okay, I'm even conservatively 10%. Just sitting there, who cares? That's great. 10% a year, you know, ten years ago. If you told an investor, you can get 10% a year guaranteed on your money forever. Your money will double every seven years. You'll be rich. If you're in your 20s, you'll be rich. The future of cryptocurrency is a multi-chain world and you can't have a multi-chain world without Horizon. Who allows These Chains to be interoperable. Horizon is
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Now. It's I think it's you know, right now the kind of deals we can get out here is like it's the Golden Era yields and crypto gonna go down. Yeah. It's gonna go down to these is more players come into thick to the pool, you know, the efficient and efficiency of the market, these to cut types of yields and crypto. One is the Ponzi yield which is in defy. You know, I'm going to create this thing.
And I'm going to get the community and buying the token and then I'm going to incentivize them by printing tokens other than the air. And so that's creating you and you were making it by selling those tokens to the new guys coming in so you can get the 10,000 percent yield on that. But you got to watch your real fun of me to risk or smack country packs and being raped, but then there's the real yield that's you know, maybe if you're going to put something into block.
Celsius effectively that money is going into these markets through institutions that are doing Quant strategies to you know, all sorts of things from you know, the options to the Futures to the spot to the to, you know, like running volatility positions. So these all sorts of things you can do in these Max. Now that they're sufficiently sophisticated to generate this yield and anyone who's getting you through like retail.
Vidal like that their money is actually finding its way into these these institutional contractors that are extracting 5210 program. So yeah, like as if it's like, yeah, that leads 40 percent means a lot of work to beat the third printing money, but they can be done. So in, I only know this to be done with in crypto or, you know, very closed proprietary funds.
On fans on. Yeah.
Yeah. I mean, I think people just don't realize how it's happening. You just described it and most people just kind of, you know, cool. I'm getting healed and they don't think about how that might be happening. I mean, at the answer is these put, these platforms are either have a trading desk, right? And there's getting it themselves right there. They're actually actively pursuing these trades. Like I said, sort of largely the cash-and-carry or for a long time. The gbtc premium or whatever is the flavor of the month and then the rest are literally just
Lending it with high interest to people who need Funny Too Short, right? Or they have to be able to short as a part of their strategy, right? As a part of that strategy. So as long as you and efficiencies last the yield last but once those trades start to disappear, the yield is going to go with it. I mean block. No, it's all Fields. Go to almost nothing. It's right. It's you can see the
swings in the u.s. We given particularly. If you want to exchange and go the spot lending that they very much respond to those kind of the yields that are available.
I could. And yeah, it's really what you're doing is providing the rich. Whether someone's a short, the market or actually to these contractors that are distracting and represent and that guy will help our team casino without collateral and I can run, you know, a two weeks leverage - team two seen funding. I per annum, maybe I'll go 3x and, you know, I can really juice this thing from my original 40% action, carry 260 with Forex leverage, and then you're really starting to help from Bitcoin at that coin.
And with very little downside. So yeah, there's so many ways to slice this in Bitcoin and crypto. We think toddlers. Retail think we're smart cooking. For the language is bright because you stepping off the bus being killed by the wild Trader. Who's gonna take you, because you're holding your in vulnerable to being completely squeezed out on that liquidation, but there's also the Quan traders that are
Go to get these kinds of yields worth leverage with the funding markets. And if you can get above a 19% apy that's effectively playing bass, toxify ratio going out, stop the flow model gang up to 26. So that's kind of what we're expecting. 110 percent per annum over. The years ahead. These contractors are actually, you know, doing they like the prayer.
Actually, I know. No downside. Yeah, and
it kind of makes you realize when you really dig into it, that I mean retail Traders just have no chance. Right? I mean you're you're a tiny little fish in this, in this world of sharks and whales and you know, you're offered all this leverage and we all look at our charts and we look at whatever models we have and you try. But the reality is at any given moment, everything can change because one guy decides, it's fun time.
One guy decides it's fun time that waiting for the opportunity and president. Now they kind of always do it. Let's just win off. She presents it. Yeah, absolutely. But so
historically though anytime you see this massive leverage rinse, even if it continues down or it shakes the market, those have generally been the best buying opportunities because as you said, you have your models that are based on on chain metrics and on spot, they get quote unquote, broken temporarily by Leverage.
But they always mean revert, right? So, isn't the mean reversion trade of retail and leverage being eliminated from the market, one of the best trades, you can possibly make.
Yeah, I think so. And that's the problem. That's exactly what's happening. This last, this current week and I'm seeing retail actually doing it. We had as it was dumping the retailers were buying it up the guy's worth. Um, anything under one Bitcoin was really sucking up to those coins and moving into the wallet. So
Yeah. Retells kind of retail by the you know, accumulate is a trading like Geniuses through this mother love to see it. Yeah. I mean, it's great. Right. If you're not going to sell we will never sell Max Keiser. Yeah, then give us all your huddling. You're immune to this kind of fuckery by by Big Oil Traders and you buy the dope you win. On the other side of the other guys that want to take extreme risk and trading against them and getting squeezed out of the market.
A cat that are giving the coins to the hollers and obviously the whale Trader. Yeah, it's that's the best. I mean, it hasn't changed through the years, the Huddle strategy wins for retail. Yeah, but
even last time you and I spoke you were talking about the fact that there were supply-side shock price, hadn't caught up you gave examples of when that happened in the past. Basically these mean reversion trades. Anytime price is lagging. What's happening fun.
Mentally, I mean, forget even the leverage rinse. That's obviously a good one. But you've said, in the past, your predicted, the last Bull Run on our in our conversation, right? You said listen, like, it's hasn't happened yet. The price hasn't moved. But this is what's happening. People are moving their coins off. The big whales are accumulating and then price
followed. Yeah. I think you'd like to see it. But I'm glad it plays out. Yeah, but yeah, now it's like, when you could even see it, right, he totally see it. My account and
Yeah, everything was underpriced. I've never seen it. So hot away before it was fundamentally priced at 50,000 when it was in the 30s for so long. So many, that's almost a 2X, trade layer. The few just happy to not leave it up. You really need to know what you're doing. If you're trading on Leverage. I haven't been like I've been trading since 2014, the crypto markets and I didn't think I was consistently profitable to 2019 2020 afternoon. You know, it's
It takes a lot of years, you know, you go. I'll win them winning. I'm winning in the bank something happened. I'm losing
everyone's a genius in a bull market, right? I came in and late 16 and 17 and I thought I was the god tier Trader and then editing. It happened. All right, it
makes you know not. We were even saying in 2017. I can't wait for this beer market like we're kind of getting tired and not get
seen that sentiment. Now, I'm seeing that sentiment now actually from
I'm like people who are building their saying, I need a break to actually like focus on development and business, and not just be like consumed with price action.
Yeah. Yeah. No. It's and I think it's like some kind of bad news because I can't see a one-year BMI kit again. Like, I think with the Advent of this new sophistication in the market, it's a lot harder to get. I am, you know, Romania and a black top which you know,
When it gets that out of bounds, it takes a year to mean, revert back to where it should be and go below and then come back up. So like I think what we've got right now is like these big sort of collapses or 50% and a multi minutes, maybe three or four months of recovery. Well, we bought it took us what? Three months and then another like from man standing client. So it's like that. So
It's kind of here to stay. As my opinion, that I don't think we're going to have this for year. Laughs top. And then one year Gap. It's just an always-on face now and I'll take it. Literally is right? Like, yeah,
that's funny. You feel that. Yeah, the last drop. I'll tell you a funny story. The drop recently from 53 to 42 was during Art Basel. Miami, I was there. And so, there was this huge party Diplo. Diplo was like, DJ in this huge outdoor venue and it was sponsored by FTX, it was
Huge thing and everyone was there, right? Everyone was in Miami. And so we're in line maybe midnight Friday night. So, you know Saturday morning in the rest of the world and like nobody's phone works. Nobody. It's like you can't get any service and all of a sudden you hear this Ripple through the crowd of like 3,000 people like Bitcoin crashy Bitcoins crashing Big Boy, probably right. And you see like all these people trying to get service doing the thing, where you put your phone up in the air and trying to figure out. And what's funny is, like, so it went from 53 and then somebody was screaming
Me, I can't believe it hit 50 and it already hit 42, right? So everybody thought it had crashed like, you know, eight nine percent and it had gone all the way down to 42 and it took hours for people to be able to get service and figure it out. So it was like, there was this massive party going on all of ft x - like Sam is there, right? They say, the CEOs of all the other exchanges, and whatever. And it was just this hilarious event where they were all in one place where it almost felt like somebody was trolling knowing they like
Because you can see people, white people were trying trying to see if they had been liquidated if like like when I was with my friend, Colin random tasks, who works at hero mags have and he was like, I had a limit stop order on a leveraged position. I don't like it wasn't a market stop. I wonder if it hit or if I got like just this like crazy Mayhem and then it was like by morning when everybody woke up where they can actually sort of figure out what had happened but being in a place like that. While some
Thing was a like emotional. I was laughing. Like, my wife even turned to me. She was like, don't have anything to worry about. I was like, and I joke Diamond hands, you know, like, almost a, the club was around, whatever, but like, it was very, very entertaining to see it in that environment. It's almost a caricature. Yeah. It's like it is and you couldn't have drawn it better, but you could literally could have drawn it better. So earlier you touch on that. That you actually said sort of like casually. And in passing. Well, we're not in a bull market right now, right? We're in a bear Market.
For you, what is the definition of Bull and Bear Market? How do you determine that? I mean, obviously there's the classic definition down, 20 percent for the top for more than three months in the stock market. Maybe they say that to Bear market, right? So, I guess everybody has their own way of viewing
that. Yeah. I mind if Nation when I say that like, I'd say we're not in the like the main run of the bull market. That is a main run phase where it's just kind of go up the momentum strong. We're in a
We're just coming out a recalculation. Like, we just had this massive sell-off in May the sideways re accumulations happened and then there's that sort of tentative first climb out. And, you know, often there's another sort of accumulation and then We're Off to the Races. And next moment, everything strong. And that's the main phase of the bull run. We're not there yet. We're covering were recovering in setting up.
And so I think we're not going to get that till 2022, you know, really, phase me january-february, might be interesting. But yeah, we're still waiting
that sort of explains why we had like, you know, 65k top in May and then we had this kind of new bull run, but it really only got slightly past that right. And then, you know, maybe there was some doubt and and the market kind of dipped back again. So maybe we get that hot put in that higher low here, you know, after that, 30 K is
Accumulation and then we can get Off to the Races for me like losing 53 area, you know, had sort of been the higher high that's where I sort of have taken some pause. And it made me think we might kind of be here for a while.
Yeah, it's gonna be consolidation for another month. At least probably more. Yeah. That's that's yeah. It's gonna be a little bit boring,
but nothing will give people anxiety and cause more fear than ranging sideways.
These prices. Yeah, retail. Yeah. Yes. This the thing. It's a waiting game that people don't like and it's actually a very small part of the market that is like, main both run. You know, it's most of it it seems that nowadays is in the side ways ranging until we see it up and we've been doing that a long time now, and probably got another few months ahead before. Let's really get that pent-up demand to go.
Really to sort of blow past the prior highs, it's going to take time and it's a lot of money. There needs to come in to push back when around these days, significant money.
Yeah, you know, we talked about it's very easy to say. Well, it's just a 2X or it's just a 5x Bitcoin. Just did that. I mean, I'm guilty of saying that right? Marge 2020. We were 3800. We pulled a 17 X or whatever to the top. A 17 x from here, in terms of market cap, and, and volume.
It ain't the same, right? I be I love to joke about it, but it's not the same.
Yeah, it's like, um, Bitcoin is a very low ratio from smack it to the actual Capital that's been stored in it. And I was just checking earlier today and prior call their, you know, their average price of buying has been around twenty four, twenty five thousand. So it's like if you work that out across all the coins, it's like point.
45 trillion dollars and Bitcoins. I think a shade under maturely nose right now. So it's a kind of a two to one ratio if we're going to go what he wanted and they say if we're 10x. So right? We're talking about effectively five trillion dollars needs to come in to give us their that 10 x 4 or 5 trillion. That's a lot of money, right? That's like the entire. It's got a really like the entire, like Financial capital.
Gold gold. You knowing these facilities integers used financially. There is a Serial good eaten, the entire gold Camp financial care to push Bitcoin teenage. So we're really, I think that you think about that perspective. It's like, okay, we got to be really set up to take Capital away from equities, real estate, you know, some of the big Bond markets
I think that's down here comes the yields but it's going to take time before we. That's sort of pulls in that next level of capital. Yeah, so
or maybe or maybe we just somehow get all the money that's being printed to go into Bitcoin. If we don't even worry about eating them? Because they'll print enough that we could end
this kind of like unit bias.
Really? It's just like everything to be valued. But I'm talking about like, real, we want to eat the capable and existing store values and I'd be interested to hear like some of the more experienced people in the macro markets. Like Plan B. Well pal. See, like what their views on is, how Bitcoin will eat that size capital in the kind of path that we've thing. That'd be pretty interesting,
it would, but the good news is that
That they do believe it will happen. Right? So I think and I think we all still do and I think that's sort of the important lesson here that we've both made before is just like doesn't matter when just be there when it
does, hold on. Hopefully it's gonna happen. Like within the next five years. I would I would hate for this to drag on too long as I think.
You know, we do really need a bit of money. We've got a competitor called surveillance money Central Bank. Digital currencies through can't hang around forever. This thing needs to get big enough to be like past the point of no return to be, you know, we need more countries involved, El Salvador's one. That's great, you know, Sovereign wealth Fiat of one country, but now we're at centralized risk.
Because we've got one country. And so, what if L Salvador's experiment goes bad. It's going to talk about that all the time. Yeah,
we cheer for it. We assume it's going to be great. But if it goes bad, it's a lesson for nobody else to do it.
Right? Yeah, so we need others immediately. So there's a more decentralized network of a nation-state. So yeah, like sooner better than like, it's like Now's the Time.
clanking. Yeah, clock's, ticking clocks.
King and the momentum is there, right? Like how you guys talk about another three like a one, two three year, bear Market, we might not get there. Right?
Right. Exactly. Like the central banks would be busy, while will be airing it out. So yeah, but luckily, I don't see that happening. You know. Hope that plays out.
Goodbye. Hope we didn't oppress anyone with the ending conclusions. I don't think that's what's going to happen. But I do agree with you that net. We need to strike while the iron is hot.
Hot. So Willie. I know we're up against it here with time work and everybody follow you and keep up with your work. After this conversation.
I'm sometimes on Twitter. Don't post much that's, um, that's wound. Namik. It with namik on Twitter. I wrote a newsletter. There's a link to it from my Twitter profile and then use data effectively all the Quant sort of our chain Nelson. So they do in association with glass node, just gives a sort of mid macro macro to even the short timeframe forecast based on the data coming in.
And, you know, it's mainly the spot markets through the on chain forensics. So it's mainly pitched it and lister's, but a few Traders sometimes helps to bias your trades. So it's very
special. Yeah, I can't recommend enough. It's very, very helpful. I think it's definitely for Traders because you have to have context before you have any sort of thesis on which direction the markets going, right?
I think side-by-side want to downplay it because I don't want to attract people into trading it.
And get I didn't really I feel like a what he's doing.
Okay? Okay, I'll scale that back. But I stand by
it. We don't trade and this you really know what you're doing. And
but I think that you know, that and I think that's a valuable lesson. I mean 95% of Traders fail. And when you hear the context of what's actually happening behind it, you can see why.
Yeah, very obvious
and thank you so much for taking the time to do this. We're going to, you know, maybe six more months down the road. We'll do another catch up and see if we were horribly wrong.
If we're actually down it,
okay, sounds good. Look forward to, it's got have great to each other. Thank you.