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The Wolf Of All Streets
Bitcoins Supercycle | Dan Held, Kraken
Bitcoins Supercycle | Dan Held, Kraken

Bitcoins Supercycle | Dan Held, Kraken

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Dan Held, Scott Melker
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33 Clips
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Aug 26, 2021
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Episode Transcript
0:00
This episode is brought to you by Harmony. Please stay tuned for more information about them later in the episode.
0:11
What's up, everybody? I'm Scott melchor. And this is The Wolf of Wall Street's podcast or twice a week. I talked to your favorite personalities from the world's a Bitcoin Finance trading, art music, Sports and politics. Basically anyone with a good story to tell now everyone seems to want to know where the price of Bitcoin is headed. Today's guest is made a popular and compelling argument as to why Bitcoin could undergo what he calls a super cycle as the growth lead at crack in one of the world's largest and most stablish exchanges. It's safe to say that Dan understands what it means. For both an asset and Company to expand and value and size. Not only is Danny.
0:41
G and the crypto space is unwavering conviction and the community loves him. It's my hope today, but Dan, and I can revisit the supercycle thesis and discuss some of the force that play, they can make it happened. And help. Thanks so much for coming back on the
0:52
show. Thanks for having me. I'm excited to explore at the supercycle again.
0:56
Absolutely. Well, that let's do that for those who may not have heard of it. Since all of a sudden we had a bear Market since last time we talked, I put that in quotes for those who are listening and not watching because I think both did and I probably would feel that we aren't truly in a bear Market, but can you read
1:11
Isn't the idea of the supercycle.
1:13
Yeah, it's funny. As soon as there's a little bit of a dip, you know, people lose faith. And so I think of the quote, you know, ye of little faith. I've been modeling for nine years and three different bull runs and so folks in the first big dip in a bull run people are like it's over it's over and you know this very much reminds me of 2013 2013. We had a bull run in the beginning of the year that I had this sideways agonizing chop for about three to six months and then we had a bull run at the end of the year. And so this year very much feels like that now to zoom out and apply.
1:41
This knowledge to what the supercycle means. The supercycle is basic. The tldr is that this time is different and that it probably won't Bitcoin. Probably won't behave like all the other cycles and I think this skews more bullish. Now, of course, no one can predict the future. Neither you nor I can, you know, as a caveat. These are more of just our opinions on worth the price, might go. So the super cycle is basically like this time is different. We have institutions. We have institutional infrastructure. We have the whole world coming to understand Bitcoins, value prop.
2:11
That Bitcoin is available to purchase in like cash app, Robin Hood. So if I PayPal venmo alongside cracking coinbase excetera, there's so many places to buy it and there's so much good knowledge and educational content that Bitcoin could go from a hundred million users to a billion users potentially or something something really big like that. So the supercycle is a bit. Basically dictates. This time is different. Could see it be more bullish than usual. And what that would look like would be kind of like a 2013 where we have a mini bull run and then another Bowl run.
2:41
In the year or we would see that kind of like a longer more extended Bull Run, or maybe there's a muted bear market, right? Like the bear Market isn't as intense. Now with this dip in the middle. I don't know if that that part of my thesis or that that interpretation of my thesis holds true anymore, you know, in terms of there being a more mild bear Market, it seems like this Market is still very intense and we saw a pretty big dip here on the way up. So yeah, the tldr overly overly overall. It's basically a board bullish.
3:11
Interpretation on this current cycle. That, you know, this is the moment that mainstream wakes up and institutions wake up and believe that Bitcoin is valuable. And if that happens in Bitcoins, not going to have a normal run.
3:22
I think it's also a matter of time, frame and interpretation because you look at Bitcoin March of 2020 at 3800 or even College 6,000, since it was very temporarily under 4,000. And you looked at a price of 29,000, which was basically the lows of this quote-unquote bear Market. You would have killed for that.
3:41
Price, when Bitcoin was 6,000.
3:43
Totally totally. It's so funny how bearish people get when they see Bitcoin at 30,000 or like, oh, man, that I mean, that was capitulation. Right? Like, right, right under under 30. It's so funny. You think about that? If he a Bitcoin exposes so much of the raw human nature of fear and greed, where Bitcoins price, nothing changed about Bitcoin, the prices changed but because of that people had these mental models of what's expensive or cheap and so totally, you know, flips the idea of like what is value and how do people value things on top of its head?
4:11
It's really interesting to see.
4:13
I've made that argument campus times that price and value are not the same thing and I think new Traders and investors don't understand that and obviously they're drawn to whatever the price is at that moment and they determine it as such. But when you look at on chain metrics the central bank's, I mean, all of it, the reasons that we buy Bitcoin, I think it's a very clear argument that the price is not caught up to the value.
4:34
Totally. I mean, look Bitcoin. If the world realized Bitcoins value Bitcoin should be a 10 to a hundred trillion dollar market cap, I mean,
4:41
That's what Bitcoins true net worth is in terms of like if you look at gold or other store of value assets. I mean, there's 18 trillion dollars of bonds in the world. It is negatively yielding. That is even make sense. It's like took the credit card company paying you to take out a loan and then they pay you every single month because you borrowed from them. I mean, it's it's absurd. So, you know Bitcoin, I think especially in this environment Bitcoin should be worth at least tens of trillions. So yeah, we're very far away
5:07
from that. Interestingly. I mean, we obviously talked about inflation and the potential for
5:11
Hyperinflation and negative bond yields Cathy wood today. Said, she views deflation is a much bigger threat than inflation at the moment. Yeah. I don't know about
5:20
that. I mean money. Printer, Gober is pretty insane right now. And I think a lot of the four is around, deflation are unfounded. In fact, if you look at the number of times, the word deflation is used. So like right after the Federal Reserve was created through the Great Depression that word became this piece of fud for the former. No Priya Central Bank era of like
5:41
There's these deflationary spirals. There's all these issues with deflation. Oh no deflation. It's going to end the world. Well, why is inflation? Okay, but deflations not. Okay, and there's all sorts of bizarre arguments that economists come up with. As to why deflations bad. One of the most absurd ones is that, oh well, as prices decrease consumers with Will withhold spending in perpetuity because they expect prices to continue to decrease, which doesn't make any sense. It's saying that humans don't consume anything in that. They'll be able to
6:11
To withhold withhold like, spending on food and housing for forever.
6:16
It's a presumption that you will wait two years to eat because prices might get
6:19
an exact. It's a classic Economist style thought, right, like totally, you know, Theory ready, but nothing, nothing happened will to the real world and also, you know, let's say let's say we zoom out and look at real world examples of where that that isn't the case TVs and electronics. They continually TVs continually drop in price and have higher and higher quality, huh? Why?
6:41
People buying TVs. Well, because they want to consume content right now. They don't want to wait five years and withhold consumption. This whole deflation worry, I think is really overblown. And and if we look at the word frequency done by Google ngram. So Google ngram looks at the frequency of words across all the books in the Corpus. If we look at the word, deflation, it really spiked around the Great Depression. Post fed being created and it became this Boogeyman became this Boogeyman were inflation fights. Deflation and says, Boogeyman that they must constantly fight against. But in reality, the market would just equilibrate
7:11
Eight, it would just equalize. There's nothing wrong with inflation or deflation. It's just the market reacting to certain conditions. And so, yeah, I think deflation is a really big Boogeyman that that's often used as this concern. That, I don't think it's a concern at all.
7:23
I've had Jeff Booth on the podcast twice, with his book that price of Tomorrow is one of my favorites and in a vacuum deflation. A deflationary environment is actually somewhat biblical heaven, right? I mean people don't have to work as much Goods her cheaper. You go about your day and become an entrepreneur and enjoy your free time.
7:41
Yeah, it's funny like anyone who argues for inflation typically doesn't have a very good argument for deflation in terms of like why they're against it. They're just like, oh, it's bad.
7:50
Yeah. That just sweeping idea that it's bad. Well, it's a
7:54
classic one. Like you ask your economics professor at University. They're going to say that kind of a deflationary spiral. It's a classic term. Yeah. Remember the number during the seven of the 2018-2019 era and Bitcoin where people talked about the Bitcoin miner death spiral. Yeah. It's
8:11
It's funny to see these narratives repackaged in this Fudd repackage and slapped on the Bitcoin or, or any other topic. It's the word spirals often used to commentate. This like building upon itself, negativity that occurs, but we don't see that in practice at, all.
8:26
Right. And Bitcoins never had a spiral of that sort. Even though price is corrected the mining thing Fudd. China always Fudd, India always fun ransomware, always fun, environmental impact, always fun. It never
8:40
smart.
8:41
Yeah, it's funny. I people act like that. Miners. Won't care about economic interest in that like the market won't equilibrate and I'm like, well, of course it will. It, since the market like there's strong incentive for it to equalize. I just did a presentation at a at an investment firm and at the end, I had this rapid fire Fudd. So I presented the piece of food in the debunked in presented debunked it and after be nine years in the space, it gets pretty damn tiring. Where you're like, okay, the China Fudd has been around for a long.
9:11
Long time and now that Bitcoin miners are out of China, I bet you will still see China Fun. I bet you will still see it. It'll be ridiculous because they're out of China and China has very limited, you know, Bitcoin, economic activity now, but we'll still see China Fun. China fed will never end.
9:27
If we have one narrative that returns every time price drops by, at least 10%, It's something to do with China,
9:32
death, taxes and fun. We're really the only through the three constants in life.
9:36
Absolutely. True. So you mentioned earlier, you know, we could see a billion users on
9:41
Point which I agree actually spoke with Anthony scare Mochi had the same sort of Target. What does the world look like with a billion users Bitcoin?
9:50
Even at a billion users? That's only let's see. There's like seven or eight billion people in the world. That's the only one out of eight people using Bitcoin at a billion users. I think there's a lot of different things that occur one. We start to see on the base layer, layer 1 transactions becoming more expensive which pushes Innovation and transactions to layer to this is a good thing. The long-term security model for Bitcoin relies on
10:11
Action fees occurring on layer 1 in those growing. So, this is a good thing for Bitcoins long-term security, which also means I think we'll see development of more layer to Tech and a more robust ecosystem of like, layer to usability, you know, doing certain things on layer, 2 can be somewhat Technical and harder to use. And so I think that'll be the impetus to go build products and services to solve that problem. That would be one big thing. You know, we're going to see Bitcoin finally be mainstream. And what I mean by mainstream is will start to see Fudd will never die. Thud will Fed will always exist.
10:41
It might start to taper or those three different flavors of fun, old fud will kind of died out and new flood will come up. You know, I think the proof of work Fudd will be a Perpetual peace of fun. So I think, you know, Bitcoin to become more of his geopolitical conversation and we saw a little bit of this with the, you know, the u.s. Infrastructure Bill Weir Bitcoin as a cause was finally recognized or people went. Oh, wow. This is a big Community. These senators and congressmen, you know, these congressmen were like, oh wow. This is a big Community. We should start to pay attention. So I think like having a voice
11:11
It's in the room is good Bitcoin survives. Despite that it doesn't, you know, doesn't need validation by the existing incumbents or powers that be, but it makes Bitcoins transition a little bit easier if they understand and they respected and they respect the people behind it. So I think Bitcoin as a voter base, becomes really large in that regard and especially in Western developed countries, like the US and Europe. That means that no of twenty or thirty percent of the population or 40%. If they own Bitcoin then Banning Bitcoin becomes highly unlikely, I think the whole painting Bitcoin Fudd.
11:41
Will be a big one as Bitcoin rises in popularity because people will go. Oh, what? Well, if this is a threat to government's, what? They shut it down. Well, 40, 50, 30 percent of your population owns it. Well, good luck. If you shut it down, then you're going to get voted out of office, or you can have people mobbing in the streets. So, I think Bitcoins adoption like, hitting a billion users is critical for its survivability as Bitcoin grows in. Adoption base layer, security fees grow up go up and there's more products services, and then we become a bigger butt voter block. So yeah.
12:11
Yeah, I think overall it's like Bitcoin finally entering the mainstream where Bitcoin isn't regard, and we're starting to see flavors of this, right? Like, big investment banks are like Bitcoins normal. We're starting a Bitcoin desk or we're allowing our customers to buy Bitcoin. I mean, someone for someone like me nine years ago. This is incredible. Like we've already had one to some extent, you know, the battle still. I think we still have a long battle ahead of us, but these are huge concessions from the investment Banks and traditional Financial infrastructure of like Bitcoins here to stay
12:38
close to me, like, regulating and taxing as much.
12:41
In the interest of the government and panning. Right? Totally. Yeah, you make money on it. That and what's funny is people, you know, our community, obviously jumped on this infrastructure bill that you brought up because they saw this one line, you know, whether you believe it was malicious or it was just poorly written, either way, that that was potentially damaging, but Bitcoin was in the infrastructure bill.
13:04
You know like crypto was into this
13:06
infrastructure. Built to me. This was the biggest advertisement in the history of Bitcoin. You talk about going mainstream if we're being debated by US senators and that sentence or a few sentences or Clauses is freezing, the Unis US Senate for three to four days? Doesn't that mean that we're already
13:21
there? Yeah. Certainly. I think the fact that I got introduced though is probably we're not all the way there yet, but we are at least being talked about where at least in the conversation and we showed that we're not something to be messed with, you know, we're not
13:34
Go quietly into the night. We're going to put up a fight. That's the whole point Bitcoins about Freedom. Bitcoin is about sovereignty. And ultimately, you have to fight for something like that. And I think the community rallied behind it and and really said loudly, we're not okay with this. I don't
13:45
know what will happen in the house, but it's my feeling that the way things went in the Senate, a few Congress, people are going to jump all over this as a potential way to gain votes and the support of the crypto community and they're easily going to rephrase this and get it done.
14:00
Totally. I think that's a very likely outcome. I mean they saw the
14:04
Boring of and, and I was on a Spate of Twitter space with Mirage last night and he said out of all the issues in the bill, the crypto and Bitcoin Community were the loudest Community. Talk like that became the the sticking point of a trillion dollar infrastructure bill, right? Like that's pretty. That means that we have a powerful voice in sitting in a congressman or certainly gonna look at that and go. Okay. We need to figure out how to work with this voter base.
14:24
I think it's also quite ironic that it's a trillion dollars or more being printed out of nowhere and the Bitcoins also being extremely successful until
14:32
it's very poetic.
14:33
Yeah.
14:34
If anything, it's show you exactly what Bitcoin was created to hedge
14:39
against. I couldn't have put it, put it on perfectly.
14:42
So outside of price and the bull market and the supercycle, what is exciting you right now, in this space? What do you think? We're going to see in the coming months and years?
14:50
Yeah. So, you know, what's cool about Bitcoin is, I'm a product and marketing guy. So Bitcoin to me represents that it's found product-market fit in terms of traction, in terms of usability Bitcoin, as a store of value Asset, fits all those parameters without
15:04
Each week you necessary on layer one. Bitcoin doesn't need to do any improvements. Doesn't need to do an upgrade. A lot of people find that boring. I find it thrilling. It means that Bitcoin has found traction and product Market, fit. And that, even if we all walked away, and there was no development on, it would still survive. That's what you want from a money. You wanted money to be the Super stable, barely changing thing, the solid foundation for the economy. So I think that that's great. You know, with that though. Of course, I'm curious about new things in the D5 sector. I think has some very interesting stuff going on.
15:34
Doing an exploration across various D5 projects, like Stacks, as Sovereign, which I'm going to write about in two weeks DLCs distributive, law of contracts and like lightning. And other lightning is a smart contract. And I would say, defy, you know, people forget that the first defy application was on bitcoin called a join Market. It's a decentralized way to earn yield on your Bitcoin where you coin, join with other folks. So you provide liquidity for coins. So people forget that, you know, there are some of these big, you know, the word Defy is somewhat ambiguous. I when writing about GI for the
16:04
First time, I struggled to even Define what it is. Because the definition of defy across protocols and different folks has pretty broad
16:10
there and I think that becomes more difficult every day. Yeah. I mean there's just this expanding balloon of, you know, things under that umbrella. Yeah, like,
16:19
you know, some of these have centralized Keys. Some of these have, you know, really centralized team structures. Some have none, you know, there's a whole spectrum of how it works. So yeah. D Phi D Phi, I would Define as like smart contract functionality. That's usable.
16:34
Or and is being used. You know, there's all sorts of theoretical defy. But until it's used. I don't think that's representative of like, having product Market fit, or utility. So yeah, I mean, like, lightning is used in lightning uses smart contract, functionality. You know, it's it's funny. It's a lot of people like, oh and Lightnings not defy. I'm like, how would you define d Phi? Then, you know, and oftentimes they don't have a super-tight definition of it and I don't think I do either. So yeah, it's been I think in the D5 side, like certainly there's a lot of interesting stuff going on the ecosystem.
17:04
Bitcoins find it as is but there's a lot of cool ways to bolt on this defy functionality in a Bitcoin. And so I kind of view it as a nice to have not necessarily like a need to have for Bitcoin to survive. So exploring that's been fun for me.
17:15
Yeah, it's crazy. What's being built in this space and it's almost hard to imagine what it will look like you're over here. Total. Just it's,
17:21
yeah. Yeah, the piece of innovation is pretty wild pace of innovation, and structural risk. At the same time. I look, I'm an old Bitcoin, her. I'm like a dinosaur, right? I'm, you know, I'm really worried of structural issues.
17:34
Defy is really cool. So, like I've been exploring that at the same time. There's like massive structural problems. You know, that, I think that most folks don't like to talk about. For example, like u.s. DC or other centralized, stable coins, being the predominant, collateral used in the defy ecosystem on ethereum, another, another D5 platforms. You know, that's a huge risk. I mean, it's completely centralized. It's not at all. Defy. In the slightest like maker is basically, most of the collateral used to our stable coins centralized able coins. So you've got a decentralized table coin, collateralized by a centralized stable.
18:04
Coin. And so in one second, the US government or any other government could come in and request that all these funds be Frozen. And if all these are contracts are written on top of those contracts, you know, the composability that they're all kind of woven together. Then you have this cascading effect. And I think that a lot of people just kind of brush that off but I'm an old Bitcoin. ER, and the reason why Bitcoin is created was because these one-off events that happen every 20 years, 10 years are catastrophic writing. That's so she plan to bitcoin during the 2008 financial crisis when the whole system broke. And so bitcoiners naturally.
18:34
Myself included, are I think they're more negative and I would say more cautiously optimistic is maybe a way to phrase. It is like I'm weary. It's exciting, but I'm very wary because there's a lot of very obvious structural problems.
18:47
Right? I mean, d if I wasn't really discussed in the white paper, right, you know, more peer-to-peer cash, the store of value. Obviously, the concept of it being a hedge. It's right there, you know, central banks. So, I guess that begs, the question of do, all these things need to be built on bitcoin, or can there be this whole other
19:04
Our world of D5 it. It's just like, I know everybody fights about it, but maybe it's just a completely separate thing. Right? And it's just a complete other universe
19:11
and could be icy kind of both. It's the free market plane out what people want to use. You know, I think like if I were to personally, use defy products, I'd want to use them on bitcoin some fashion and Bitcoin does have very limited capabilities for a variety of reasons. And that's why I'm interested in exploring these other solutions that are either tied to Bitcoin in some fashion or rooted in Bitcoin, whether you look at these, you know, there's all sorts of there's no
19:34
If I Solution on bitcoin or etherium that has a perfect trade off of no risk and it's early usability. There's all sorts of trade-offs of decentralization and you know basically settlement assurances are the higher you go up in the stack in terms of like layer 1, layer 2 layer 3, the less settlement Assurance is that you have because whatever settled on chain is your highest settlement Assurance. I'm sure that this transaction went through versus different like layer, two technologies, and above. So I don't think that's necessarily a bad or good thing. You know. I just think that like happiness.
20:04
Stable foundation for an ecosystem. Like this is really critical now. Yeah, so I'm not you know, for me. I'm not just like negatively saying like, oh, it's not. I don't believe that any other ecosystem could exist. I just prefer that mines built on something really, really solid and that that's Bitcoin. In my opinion,
20:19
that that makes perfect sense. What I find interesting is that Taproot has fallen completely out of the news cycle. That's smart contracts coming to
20:27
bitcoin, right? Totally. Yeah. Taproot is a narrative as well to where I think there's a lot of Lucky things going on. That that take you know, kind of
20:34
All the all the air out of the room in terms of narratives but taproots a huge upgrade for Bitcoin. You've got Taproot. You've got a lot of exciting things going on at least Kylie knew myself, hung out with her a lot at Sochi Roundtable her and I talked a lot about this of like, you know, just the what is the definition of d Phi Y, is lightning not considered defy by the common population, right? It's just all it's more of narratives in anything else. It's a I think the etherium community does a really good job of narratives and marketing. Whereas the Bitcoin Community is, you know, they're there.
21:04
More just like, hey Bitcoin doesn't need to change and while that may be true. There's all sorts of cool things that we could at least explore narrative wise that I think our value accretive to bitcoin, you know, in some degree. I again, I think like these other smart contract platforms, then executing rapidly, increasing, many, many, much, like, much, optionality. You know, that I think is a really tough race to fight because you've got like Solana coming up, right? Like Solana, I think very much challenges. Ethereum. Salon is becoming very popular. There's going to be a race to the bottom like
21:34
In those with us. DT DS. DT was on bitcoin then 1 2 or 3. Mm. And now Tron there's more usage on Toronto with USD. And and that's just kind of like this. This in this is a huge tree. This is a, this is the number 2 now, this in terms of volume. I think you s DT is higher than Bitcoin. There's more. It is daily volume. Yeah, and so, you know, on chain, I wouldn't be surprised if there's more settlement going on with usct. Then there is with Bitcoin, you know, and so you've got all these sort of like, weird funky. Things like that, where, you know, usct then is basically it doesn't really
22:03
Care about what blocks units on. It doesn't really care about settlement assurances because it's all centralized at the end of the day, right? Like it's a ledger database that is completely controlled by. I forget what Consortium there is on the tether side, but it's funny what smart contracts need to be in a nuclear grade like nuclear resistant Ledger and what contracts need to be on, basically, a centralized letter. There's this whole spectrum, and it's really interesting to see how that's how this all played out
22:27
it. Is it even just, if you look at what's been happening with the other protocols with Taproot coming.
22:34
Miriam announce the IP 1559 London hard Fork now forget even the tech or what it is price effect. If we went up the market reacted, positively and said, we like this cardano makes an announcement of an announcement of the Alonzo. Hard Fork, but smart contracts are coming and price is absolutely gone crazy. So imagine what happens when Bitcoin gets its first significant? Meaningful upgrade when Taproot
22:56
gets totally. Yeah, it's funny how these narratives like how these narratives are woven into price. Like when is The Narrative priced in like
23:04
There's a big debate with Nick Carter and others about is to having priced in in the way that I've I've come to a sort of a neutral perspective of like these events are priced in for those who understand it and not priced in for everyone else, which is a basically 99.9% of the population. Don't really understand the impact of these different news events. So yeah, I think like, you know, with Bitcoin with Tap Root level, I think the market it's funny to as I don't know if you noticed this but when the u.s. Infrastructure Bill news came out, it's very negative. And this was not a good news.
23:34
Okay, Bitcoin didn't care. It was wild halted at all. Like not even like not even a little baby dip. It was like maybe 1% in and bounced back up and that to me, reads Bull Run. That's screams Bull Run when in a bull run negative press is disregarded and positive news. Buoys the price in a bear Market. We see the opposite, right? Positive news has no impact in negative news continually punishes it lower. And so we're very much seen that where I think like Taproot might be kind of perfectly positioned at this peak of the peak of the bull run where, you know, Bitcoins price starts to Surge, then Tap Root Nu.
24:03
News feeds into this. We see this with other protocols as well. This is not just with Bitcoin. But yeah, it's this, it's this positive news cycle when sentiment and there's a bullish sentiment going on, it buoys the price and negative news is largely thrown away. When we use the term priced in,
24:18
for me, that's more about a news event, something that's happening. So the announcement that taproots happening where that the having is coming, is sort of what's priced in, but the actual fundamental impact of that over a long time and not be priced it, you can't price in reduced Supply with
24:34
Demand, that's not priced it. Yeah,
24:36
that's where folks who know and pay attention, have started to price it in with their own bets. But the rest of the world doesn't really know and at the same time is also the one-liner of buy, the rumor, sell the news that's right now to wear, like, maybe there will be a lot of like upswing and price for Bitcoin with Taproot up until Taproot launches, and there's a dip
24:53
right? Then the actual fundamental benefits of it, play out over the next six months to a year and that helps slowly grind a price up, which is sort of what you see with the having rights, not like the day to having hits, right?
25:03
All of a sudden price
25:04
moons, but that's what everyone expected are like, oh, it's going to go to like a hundred K the first day after the having and like, no, that's not how it works. You know, it's, it's like every Market participant is repricing what they think the asset is worth, and having to reduce the amount of Supply hitting the market. It demand stays constant or goes out. Then, you've got less Supply, which means naturally prices start to climb and then that cycle repeats itself. People have fomo, they buy it ahead of everyone else having fomo and that's how Bitcoin has grown and that's all these crypto assets. Grown, since the beginning,
25:33
their complete pivoting.
25:34
Pudgy Penguins etherium rocks, crypto punks. What do you make of the absolute Insanity of the nft cartoon art, quote-unquote jpeg as people like to call it
25:45
space. I'm I would say call myself more of a moderate on the Bitcoin side, like look if people I'm a Libertarian free markets guy, so I'm like if people want to buy and sell digital rocks. Sure. I personally do want to do that and all the power T. I guess. I mean people buy and sell paintings and I've
26:03
You know, may or may not want to own those or sculptures, Etc. So everything in life is subjective in terms of value. And these are subjective jpegs. Now, do I think the, you know, sort of more of a moderate of, like, if people want to do that, great, you know, I don't really know if it's overvalued or undervalued at the same time. I think people should be wary. That. There's a lot of like, painting the tape going on where an artist sells it to him or herself and you know, a famous the guy who made that Crystal Skull in real life. I forget his name. He's a room to the things artist, one of the one of the highest priced.
26:33
Items him and a group of investors bought that from himself to paint the tape. So this happens all the time with art, but I think people should be wary of what they're getting into the same principle applies for any investment or why do you feel fomo filling phonebook, is the prices going up. Not because you just fell in love with this piece of art, if you truly love that piece of art, go for it. I guess, you know, who am I to say you? Who am I to stand between love, you know, like if you really want that go ahead at the same time, start to question, why you really want that item? Is it because everything else is pumping and you're hoping this to write it and I think a lot of people are doing it.
27:03
Because that naturally
27:05
almost everything think so too. You may love that rock, but I don't know how you can love that rock six figures.
27:11
But yeah, exactly. So yeah, all the power to them, if they want to go buy and sell whatever they want to trade and we people are free to trade, whatever they like. At the same time. I think people should be very cautious. Think about like, hey, this is a very, like, Insider Market of people painting, the tape, you're feeling this feeling because the price is going up. You're not feeling this feeling because someone made a piece of cord to start that. You just have to have the, It's usually the case now,
27:33
I know that that's where you weren't accumulating Bitcoin during the bear Market. You weren't accumulating in FTS during the bear Market. You're accumulating them during the bull run. And that's because you're feeling from, oh, I
27:43
was just gonna say, is it that, I mean, you know, that obviously applies to n FTS, but it also applies to bitcoin that, you know, figured thousand didn't want it at 20, but I love it at 50, whatever retail, right? And, and that's why we end up having this 55 dish percent.
27:57
Retrace. It's so funny how this happens. Right? Like you tell your friends and family about Bitcoin when it's
28:03
And dollars and they're like, I don't know. It seems expensive. Where do you think it's dead? Then it goes up and they're like, okay I want and I don't care and then they buy in and then it dips in there. Like okay, I'm out and you're like, oh man, it's taught me a lot about investing in general. If you just have a 5 to 10 year Horizon on any asset and now you're going to be wrong too much of times. But you know, if you come in with investment thesis in your right just thinking that far ahead and houghtaling you're ahead of the curve by 20-fold, you know, they're they're going to panic sell the first time, something bad happens and you're going to huddle now, obviously you can
28:33
Some of those bets. Not everything's like Bitcoin. So, you know, you're going to lose some of those. But I do think that the philosophy of hottel is kind of like a life philosophy in a way it teaches you to like, okay, reorient your thinking, you know, reject that emotional sentiment of fomo or greed or like fomo or fear and think through. OK, why did I get into this? Have it has anything changed investment thesis wise? If not, then I'm going to model and I've got a certain time, gated range of five to ten years to see if this is going to play out and play, see how it plays out versus like man. If
29:03
Like the younger generation the jinns years. They just, you know, I feel bad cause like, you know, marketers like myself and product Builders, you know, Silicon Valley. We've built like these mobile games. We've built this addictive feedback loop and products of likely, see a notification on Twitter, Instagram, read it. They got a check it and I fall prey to this as well. Like, I'm not averse to it, but we do it without it. We grew. Yeah. Yeah. I feel like I was able to focus a lot more and now, you know, Robin Hood, it has tapped into the Mac that mechanic as well with those trading, right?
29:34
You know, and I feel like that's a really intense Loop
29:37
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30:03
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30:24
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30:26
I remember back in the day when we get I first got into Investments. He was like a really shitty web interface, you know, like like TD Ameritrade. Hurry Trader. Fidelity is like really hard to log into and so you just set it and let it because it was, it wasn't fun to log into and check the price because it was really hard to read. It is a pain to trade it and now it's just it's so easy on on the Sab that I think it really changes this, this entire Generations. It Taps into Generations, like very short-term attention span. And this is a, this is an overly sweeping generalization. So hopefully no one listening to this. Region's he's taking offense to this. I similarly find myself having
30:55
Attention, but you know, I think the hot oil is an investment philosophy. Is really hard like it sounds easy. It's just like buy it and don't touch it. But for any asset
31:04
that stuff. Yeah, it's nearly impossible. Marquess go. I tell the story of the time it became on the podcast. They said there's for, you know, how many people do you think are still holding Amazon stock from the
31:13
IPO? Totally for
31:15
before, really? It be Zoe's business is now ex-wife and apparently his parents are her parents and everybody else. Some point gave up or sold, listen to had 95%
31:25
Draw Downs. It was just a book company, right? And you had all these events and eventually, you know, we cans you find your reason to sell them, no matter how long you've helped and that plays to something that is really interesting in this space. Because people love to say that. Oh, geez, were lucky that you guys were there early and that was your only Edge. But most people I know who were early like sold at a thousand
31:46
bucks. I mean, I'm just happy. I didn't lose my Bitcoin or sell it. And honestly, there's probably like other parallel universes where I did that, right? Like, it's in this.
31:55
And we're I had the conviction to hold Bitcoin and in a lot of other fact, I mean there's so much Temptation right? Like there was times where I would took some time off between two jobs.
32:05
To be all seems a little bit coin live for another two months or three
32:08
months. Sure and I lived in San Francisco too expensive there. Right? Like I didn't have a ton of money and I put everything almost everything I had into Bitcoin and you know, this was a lot, right? Like and so I think people don't understand like, you know, the philosophy of houghtaling that long. It's gift to resist the temptation to spend it, but there's so many reasons.
32:25
Reasons. Do, I'm also fortunate. I've got a girlfriend of two years. She's great and she's big into Bitcoin as well. Fortunately, but I'm very thankful to have a partner or to have not had a partner previously that would have encouraged me to sell. I mean by I feel bad for the bitcoiners who had a husband or wife and they were like, hey honey, I want to buy a home. I need you to sell or you know, like there would be a lot of contention, you know, and
32:46
so fault them for doing. So if it can better your life, that's your decision, but there are right if you're really that steadfast and this is you're holding it forever that that pressure
32:55
Is is really unfortunate what I love about this. Secondary effects of the not your keys, not your coins. Ethos is, it makes it so much harder to panic cell, right? Because like, if you get down the rabbit hole from, I'm not holding it on the exchange, a pretty hard by well, then you obviously go from Hard Way wallet to multistage and then you get crazy about where you disperse your keys and multisig. So, like, you make it basically impossible for yourself to make. Yeah, at least an impulsive decision to
33:20
sell totally. Yeah, there's other methods of that to. It's kind of funny, like, I lend out my Bitcoin in Genesis has,
33:25
As fixed term lending, I'm on open term right now, but they do a fixed term lending. It's locked up for x amount of months. Well, you're stuck out of it. There's also, like, I borrow against the coin using my Bitcoin as collateral. Well, unless I pay off that loan. I can't touch those coins. Right? It's kind of like is
33:41
it's been like a day effect. It really is though because if that's just sitting on it in exchange, I feel like at some point. Oh, yeah, it's just that weak moment where you just hit the sell button.
33:52
And by the way, definitely for everyone listening. Definitely recommend self custody. That's the way to go.
33:55
Yeah, you know, I don't risk a ton of my coins on these centralized venues to borrow against them or lend. I don't think so. Yeah. Yeah. So dead plus one on Scott's
34:03
thoughts there. Yeah. I have a small percentage that's earning yield or, you know, involved in those things, but the bulk of it is, we're basically, it's impossible for me. I've been making possible so impossible for someone else to get it and I make it impossible for me to get it. Basically, you mentioned Robin Hood earlier and I think it's interesting. Obviously, they really have gamified, you know, trading and made it sort of seemed.
34:25
Just like playing a play, a game to these gen Z, Robin Hood just reported leave today or yesterday, 41 percent of their revenue comes from crypto and over. 60% of that 40% is Doge. That was
34:38
wild. I saw that statistic to, I mean, obviously I work at Kraken. So, you know, and I think it's pretty obvious. I'll, you know, what was crazy is that Dogecoin wasn't available on coinbase, when Devon mustard a tweet about do. So, obviously, we got a ton of inbound traffic with that and it was, it was, I mean, wild to see how many people
34:55
Interested. Yeah, I mean those was such a crazy phenomenon. I've been around a long time and I know Jackson Palmer, like, I hung out with him in San Francisco. He said, p.m. At Adobe and he hated Bitcoin. He hated crypto. That's why he created those coin is a spike coin. I don't know. I don't know who here has. Yeah, watch Larry David, you know, lady, David Hartman of Curb Your Enthusiasm recruits despite store. It's kind of like the spite store. Like he, he hated it so much. He's like, I'm going to make the most absurd money possible and he comes up with those coin. And then
35:25
You know, you know, he doesn't Own It me at all.
35:27
Yeah. Well, yeah, I'm well
35:28
aware. Yeah, he doesn't own any. And so it's kind of funny because I like, how Dogecoin kind of perpetually reminds him that like, all money is just a belief system and it's all kind of a game and so, but it was just wild to see the sentiment, you know, like in this is where I think a lot of people over prioritize, technical development with these protocols. These Protocols are network effect in narrative-driven, right? Like Dogecoin hadn't had a commit issued in like six years or something
35:53
like programmers. I know developer.
35:55
Yeah.
35:55
And it's security is rooted in Litecoin. It's like Marie. I forget, it's like merge mind
35:59
or something or because of the. Yeah. Yeah.
36:01
Yeah, it's Teddy doesn't even have its own security. And so, yeah, I mean, the market just didn't care though, you know, people just didn't care about that. They just wanted to buy dose because it's the meme. It Dogecoin, I think back in the 13-14 are I forget when it came out but back then, Dogecoin really represented to us memes like that. Like, the that money are memes and that narratives and memes Drive priced. That's one thing that kind of like challenged my assumptions of money.
36:25
Back, then, it was considered really ridiculous. Right? Like Dogecoin was considered like, okay. This is for sure a joke, but there's some old videos of like Dogecoin conferences and you'll see how people talk about, it's really interesting. You know, people people just don't care about some of these fundamentals and just want to buy it because they like they like a cute little dog that
36:41
which I get it. But it's interesting to see these celebrities. Mm. You talked about Elan musk, obviously, but Mark, Cuban's been getting heat of late because, you know, he kind of has defended, do she said it's hoped the best crypto for a number of reasons, but then the
36:54
owns
36:55
A dollars worth. Yeah, you can I think there's a healthy balance of like, you know a crack and of course were crypto agnostic. You can trade, whatever you like and you know, I'm a Libertarian guy. So I'm like sure trade whatever you want. I personally know you only recommend or would would own Bitcoin but I think there's a little bit of irresponsibility going on when you actively promoted but you don't hold the asset yourself like if Bitcoin goes to 0, well, I'll be there along with you in the bread line. You know, it's I got I got everything on black, you know, so
37:25
I think that, you know, people are like these folks with a really big audience, talk about these coins and I'm like, that's great if you're really truly exploring it, but if you only own five hundred dollars worth and you're promoting this a little bit, little bit, you've got some responsibility there that you're shocked. You're shuffling off a again. People are free to buy whatever they want, but actively promote it, but they're not hold any of it. As that's a $500 is nearly nothing, right?
37:48
And the gate with that. That's something to some people, I guess. But not to multi-billionaire after Cleveland. Just means you sir.
37:55
Of waxing poetic on it conceptually, but if you know what he's saying, has any effect. It doesn't matter to him, like you said, which is not ideal.
38:04
That's where it seemed like in between bitcoiners and other folks in the space where like I'm a big corner, I think bitcoiners feel that there's a big big responsibility for folks not to talk about it. These other coins where they're kind of more. I don't know. We do subjectively frivolous and agree with them to some extent. Yeah, like people with large Brands looking at stuff and and you know making people I mean we're talking
38:25
Millions of dollars here. This is a lot of money. I think there is some responsibility there, you know, at the same time people are free to buy whatever they want. And if people choose to buy it, then who am I to stand in the way? I might find it silly but other
38:38
people, I mean, maybe judge becomes the global Reserve currency for all I know. I mean, anybody that was the joke as possible. But if I had to make my bed, I would say eventually the, you know, the shine wears off. Yeah. And people don't care anymore. What happens to Robin Hood. Hey, you know what?
38:55
I mean, like, 60% of 40%, of course of their volume is just Doge, what
39:00
happens? Yeah. I mean, this is where, you know, I try to again, I'm with bitcoiners. I've been trying to talk to some of them about like, hey, you know, these Dogecoin folks are brand new to the space, you know, telling them that they own garbage in that are like to be nice people, but be nice to him, you know, like, okay. Congratulations. You made 50,000 bucks with Josh Point. Well, you know what, I've been around a long time. Maybe it is time. You roll that into Bitcoin Bitcoins. Your long-term savings account. It's you.
39:25
Statistically like you look at all the different alts. Yeah, a lot of them have a phenomenal returns. Depends on when you pick it, Bitcoin is your best return per unit of risk. And so I think that's a better more palatable narrative for folk sources, like oh, you're a bad person, you own do--she. And yeah, so I've been a
39:41
little bit dry, you know, they and this and maybe they made a lot of money. That's great. Yeah, maybe congratulations to you too. Maybe Bitcoin need to cute animal to you know, roll over from the dog into the wouldn't be a bowl, a bear. Maybe a bit too, really cute bowl or something with
39:55
well. Yeah.
39:55
Yeah, I know. There's a bunch of folks working on like Bitcoin type, like a skin ft's and stuff. So yeah, maybe they'll be some of those on there. Some, some cute animals and penguins or whatever. You might be into in
40:04
your role at Kraken. How much does the nature of the market? The cycle affect you on a day-to-day basis? I've heard anecdotally from a few people that they were looking forward to somewhat of a bear market. So they could stop putting out fires and actually work, you know, it's and that people high up in the and exchanges and Brokers were doing customer service calls themselves and trying to
40:24
sort of work.
40:25
And this is my first Bull Run, working at an exchange and it's insane. You know, I mean, it's good for the profitability of the business. A lot of people are treating volumes go up. We make we make bibs on volume. You know, I think it's a particularly exciting time for exchanges like cracking and coinbase because we're going mainstream coinbase went public cracking week. I can't speak on what we're looking at there. But Jesse is publicly mentioned. We're looking IPO someday. So we're direct listing or something like that. You know, when we look at the maturity of these companies are getting big. I mean, Krakens at two.
40:55
Thousand people now that's
40:57
that's I didn't know it. Was that big that's crazy.
40:59
Yeah. Yeah Krakens at 2:30 a year ago. We were at like under a thousand so, you know, cracking is exploding in sighs. I'm sure coin basis as well and Gemini, but you know, with crack. And I think it's really exciting to be in these roles because during the Bull Run, you're like, whoa, like so I do user acquisition. This is like, SEO, paid acquisition. So if you see a crack and add, it's likely to be from my team. Same with like organic, organic organic, a social. So on social media channels, that falls underneath
41:25
Team, you know, when you look at this, this surge you like. Whoa, this is really cool. I mean we're talking Krakens at 7 million customers. Now, you know and as the markets growing this is a really rare opportunity where I'm like, wow, this is a really cool spot to be in. So you've got the insanity of the Bull Run mixed with, I don't know how many more times I'm going to experience something like this in my life. In this is really thrilling. So it's been super fun building out my team. Like I've got a group of hustlers. They've all got that startup, hustle energy. And so I think Krakens still has that preserved like that original kind of like crypto Bitcoin, ethos.
41:55
- but combined with the startup Vibe, but becoming, you know professionalized where there's a lot of like, really top-notch people from mainstream tech companies that are directed levels and above at the company VPS that are a really, really senior. And so it's super exciting to see stuff like that. It's like, okay. We're now entering the stage of like crypto is this kind of like small Niche industry and now it's becoming really big. So it's crazy as hell. We're going on Exchange during a bull run. It's exhausting and fun at the same
42:20
time and we saw the volume is basically cut in half over the summer from the top of the bull run.
42:25
Back, give you guys a chance to breathe and focus on the
42:29
actual business a little bit. Yeah. I mean, it's it's kind of funny. I actually most folks on my team. I prefer to hire folks who are not crypto natives for two reasons. One is that they come in with very, very strong curiosity of like everything is new to them. They might have heard about some of my content on bitcoin, but they're pretty new with other things. So when we create advertisements or we create different landing pages to go, wait a second. That doesn't make sense to me. Like you guys talk about the having, I have no idea what that
42:55
That means, can you explain that to me? And then that makes us really, you know refocus on like what we're writing and were like, oh wait a second that does sound confusing and we need to drive clarity about educating folks. So I think that's really cool and then point to they don't have a whole boatload of crypto from the last four run. So they're not in the spot where they're going to retire six months into the role. All right, because that's it
43:15
doubled. I'm out. Yeah. Yeah, I can't tell you how many people quit their jobs that I know in the last six
43:20
months. Yep. Yeah. I'm one of the, it's funny. I'm one of the few for a lot of people ask me. I mean all the time. People are like, why you still work?
43:25
And I'm like, man, what the hell else would I do? I have? Yeah, it's it's fun for me. I mean, it's really exciting. I really love the folks at cracking. You know, Jeremy, Waldron the product side. He's the chief product officer. Like they've got an exceptional team that they built their. I think going to see a ton of exciting things come out from the company. So I'm just thrilled to be a part of it. I've known Jesse for almost nine years now like we weren't close buddies or anything, but I have a lot of respect for Jesse and his his ethos. So, you know, I think for me it's like well, I could I could watch the parade or I could be in the parade and have fun, you know, and I think
43:55
Kai Krakens a really cool spot to watch it all. Play out. It was
43:58
huge news when cracking God's baking license in Wyoming and sort of the banking side. Has also gotten lost in the new cycle to me for you guys and just in general, you know, like obviously there's this string of announcements, you guys getting your license, all the things happening, I guess with Avanti the OCC saying that Banks could test stable points, what happened to that they could custody assets. What's going on ocean side, right? And it kind of Forgotten but what's going on, you know, what's going on? The banking
44:25
side?
44:25
Yeah, I mean this is part of like a I think a broader Vision to build out this whole, you know crypto Bank stack, right? Like you've got the banking license is you got spot, Futures, you know, there's a lot of other cool stuff that we're exploring and this is kind of like the re bundling of, like banking, right? We've seen coinbase do this and other exchanges do this as well like other exchanges, you know, like look for is doing lending and borrowing credit card. These are all kind of like the re bundling of what you'd expect from a consumer banking service. And we see this with revolute. So,
44:55
If I cash app, Robin Hood, they started with traditional financing. They're kind of creeping into crypto. So that we're sort of the opposite we're starting and I think we're in a better position because the growth in the coin is far higher than traditional Finance. So our Revenue Surge, and then we're able to enter new markets in the traditional Financial World universes, like traditional Financial Services, their revenues don't 20x or something like that. Right? I'm not saying Krakens Revenue 20x, but you know, these volume numbers went crazy for coinbase and Kraken and revenue numbers surge to. So when that happens, it gives us a lot more.
45:25
Ready for growth. So, yeah, it's really interesting to see you on the banking side. I don't have like, any any good Insight. I can provide their own timelines, but it's definitely really highly anticipated within the company and there's a lot of resources being put behind it.
45:37
So, their Blockbuster Ada, guys are Netflix, you know.
45:42
Yeah. We'll see, you know, I look up. There's a lot of smart people that work at these other fintech companies. I think it's really interesting to see, like, kind of how all those growth happens. You know, it's like they coming in or eating its way out. It's going to be fascinating to see how they all
45:55
Play out and you know, and I've got a ton of respect as well like for like the cash app team. They're really really phenomenal. I know mile Sutter and a bunch of other folks in that team. They're great. They've same a Jack Dorsey. Like I think they're doing, you know, some awesome work of making Bitcoin, easy to easy and accessible. And then I'm really excited about like other things with like Twitter, like Twitter, maybe having like lightning wallets. Yeah, but Jack, Dorsey hinted at I mean, that's pretty sweet. I'm actually pretty bullish on Twitter. It was a pretty shitty product for most most of its existence. I mean, it's sort of survive, despite itself than rather than
46:25
Of itself, but now they're throwing in, like, monetization on like a better consumer experience where they'll give you the ability to like add bookmarks to folders and stuff. You can subscribe to your favorite Twitter account and they also bought like a newsletter company as well.
46:39
These all make a lot of sense to me. Yeah, review is who I use for my newsletter and I was using them long before Twitter about the, yeah.
46:46
Well, I've seen some mock-ups of like, how they might we've review into Twitter and that's pretty
46:50
crazy announced. It batchly announced it today and started that functionality of
46:55
right under your description. You can put a subscribe. Follow us on Twitter for your newsletter. So I would be the first thing that people see when they come pretty. Yeah, I mean, it's
47:02
pretty telling. Yeah, it's very tempting for me to potentially switch from sub stack. Not like this was like team has been great loved working with him. Also. We've got a there's a surprise coming out next week. I was up stack I helped out on which is kind of fun.
47:14
Maybe it'll come right right in time, but I need
47:16
help now. So yeah, they've got a really cool exciting announcement happening next week. But yeah, like I think Twitter is doing All the Right Moves, you know, also like this.
47:25
For follows. If he makes a ton of sense, they had all these people creating audiences and building their audiences on Twitter and then they were monetizing them, elsewhere, use letters membership services. And so to bake it in there makes a ton of sense. Now, I don't really know. Of course. I'm following it closely. I don't know if they're, I mean, they're taking like 33 percent or some absurd amount of the cut, which is a little bit egregious because with, you know, with them it's only 10% with sub stack. Right, right. So I don't know, it'll be interesting to see how it all plays out. But yeah, on the newsletter side, I think it's phenomenal to have that link right below, you know.
47:55
Just like kind of kind of like a sticky pinned Post in a way, but a little bit more
47:58
engaging. I think you can directly above your head and post. It. Looks like it's basically part of your, you know, profile description. It's really quite sought today. For the first
48:06
time. We have your email so they can probably just one click like subscribe, which thinks that that's super killer
48:11
functionality. Yeah, that it's awesome. So we talked about you guys because we have Bank, the big Banks, we celebrate them as a community coming into Bitcoin, but is that sort of, you know, counter to the ethos of Bitcoin?
48:25
Short, the bankers long Bitcoin, but they make the number go
48:28
up. Well, I would say that it's kind of like we've already started a win the war and they're starting to switch what flag they fly, you know, so yeah, we're like, oh man, they were enemies. But at the same time they're putting on our flag and they're like, cool. We're going to adopt your cultural standards and you're standards of culture and ethics and which is basically not the Bitcoin blockchain and these other blockchains. But mainly the Bitcoin blockchain is immutable decentralized tool that can't be stopped and they're recognizing you were right, which is cool.
48:55
Yeah, I don't think it's necessarily like there's a, I definitely noticed this intimate. It's a good question. A lot of like the O G's are like, oh man. I missed the basement days, you know. And we're all like, hanging out in basements and there's only ten of us. I enjoyed those days too. You know, I still do. I still like hanging out with you. Oh jeez. In fact, last week ago, a barbecue with a guy I've known for nine years from Silicon Valley and I went to the first Bitcoin meetups, you know, things change life changes. And so I'm enjoying this part of this the process, you know, it's it was very hobbyist back in that day. But now it's mainstream. I think it's kind of cool. It's
49:25
Different like this things. I don't like about it. But there's things I like about it. Bitcoin is succeeding. And that's ultimately what this is about. Right is like Bitcoin has succeeded is succeeding and Banks coming in is a validation that that is true. We're
49:36
all Boomers in our own way, right? Hey you kids get off my lawn. Like you're totally in our own things. The thing that you found first is always something that you have resentment for the people who find it
49:46
later. Everything's like that. I got involved in the Drone space as well and San Francisco seemed sort of thing there to you know, actually drones are pretty fun. People are pretty light harder than that and that sector.
49:55
Her. But yeah, it's always folks going. Oh, I don't like the new. I don't like the new way of things happening that. Yeah, sure. I don't like all of it too. But it is what it
50:03
is before we go and I know we have to go soon. Is there a price or a vent or something fundamental that could change where you would say, the supercycle was not dead or even take it further. I'm no longer a big corner. But
50:16
sure. Well, let's start with the positive ones. First. Then we can go to the negative ones. Positive ones would be like a surprise ETF approval. I think that would, I don't think it's likely for
50:25
21, but if it happened, it would be very surprising and the market would go nuts. You know, I think there would be other ones like more purchases happening from Top hedge funds that are sizable Insurance funds and Sovereign wealth funds. I think like those getting in in bigger sizes of like 10 billion. That's when things really start to get clicking. That would be surprising which would make the price. I think, very, very much, give more check marks to a super cycle happening. I think if we get over $100,000 a Bitcoin, well, the the probability of a super cycle goes up as the price goes up, of course.
50:55
But, you know, I think that, you know, once we break that hundred K barrier, I think that that really, distorts people's opinion. Like I saw this happen at 1000 and 10,000. You know, when Moon that breaks people just like lose all semblance of like they're like, whoa. Okay. I never thought I could get this high and it did. And so when that happens, I think that and that combined with this mainstream Institutional Investor feedback loop, that's where I think things can get really not. So I think like yeah, if we break hundred k, then in the game begins, then the races were off to
51:20
the bus and they started talking about a hundred, a hundred, you start talking about a million. So, the next round number with a word,
51:26
And then that's a magnet that people, you know, with holds withhold selling from and the price starts to climb. They keep withholding selling. So yeah, I think that. Yeah, count combination of factors could lead to a super cycle being more validated of it, being a possibility, you know, it's in the negative side, we could see like well, what if 65k was the top that obviously would invalidate that this is a super cycle and we see sideways turn for if we see sideways churn or like sideways chop, you know, past December. I think that that would be a very bad sign.
51:55
You should see Bitcoin break all-time highs again this year. So if we don't see that happen again, I think that the super-psycho be invalidated but who knows, you know, maybe you go sideways for eight months and then has a 20x run up in January. I don't know. Yeah, so these you who knows? Who knows? How this all plays out and make sure, you know, when you're listening to this, I don't know where the price is going to go next month. I don't know where the price is going to go over the next couple years. All I know is that the fundamentals? Look great. And I'm still houghtaling and so that, you know, that's how I think about it. But yeah, I'd say like maybe other negative stuff would be like,
52:25
Of the infrastructure Bill headband, like proof-of-work mining or they got really, really intense and like the US and like top regions. Like that would be very negative. That would definitely put a damper on things. Bitcoin will still survive. I just, I prefer to see Bitcoin Thrive and when sooner than later, it's a lot of bitcoiners like, oh, man, YouTube errors, like the coin Will Survive anything in like true, but I don't know, I'm 33 and I kind of want to see Bitcoin crush it by the time I'm like 40 or 50, you know, I want to see Bitcoin win. That's the whole point and I want to see it when sooner than later because the longer it takes to win. I think the more vulnerable it is. So yeah.
52:55
I think that, you know, I think I'm more, of course, bullish, that this, the rest of this year should be really interesting. I could certainly be wrong. I'm
53:01
44. So I'm even it out in a bigger rush. I would say it happened by those ages. So I've been really loving your YouTube channel. As you mentioned your newsletter, before we go tell everybody where they can follow you and find you after this conversation and check out your
53:18
work. Cool. Well, yeah, my newsletter is called the held report it. I read it every Thursday and it's my intimate thoughts.
53:25
On different topics. So, if you like my tweets, if you like if you liked what I said here, this is the verbal interpretation of that. We're all right about a certain topic and write a couple pages on it. And so you get this first in your inbox on Thursdays, if you're a paid subscriber, pre subscribers, get it once a month. And then on Sundays. I have a YouTube video that I put out which is similarly on in-depth Bitcoin topic. So if you like what I said here, if you like kind of hearing my longer-form thoughts, definitely check out those two spots. So Dan held on YouTube, or the health report for the newsletter.
53:53
Awesome. Thank you so much for taking the time to do this.
53:55
A second time, and I know that as we're recording this, you and I will be on Twitter spaces and then our but nobody is watching, the podcast will do that. So I will see you there, right? Thanks. Again.
54:05
Thanks for having me, Scott. Cheers.
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