Probability Is Subjective

Naval Ravikant, Brett Hall

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3 Clips

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Apr 16, 2021

Episode Summary

Episode Transcript

Does probability actually exist in the physical universe or is it a function of our ignorance? If I'm rolling a dice? I don't know which way it's going to land. So therefore I put in a probability, but does that mean that there's actual probabilistic unknowable thing in the universe is the universe flipping a coin somewhere or is it always

deterministic all probability is actually subjective uncertainty and Randomness are subjective. If you don't know what the outcomes going to be so you roll a dice.

That's because you individually do not know it's not because there is uncertainty there deeply in the universe what we know about quantum theory is that all physically possible things occur. This leads to the concept of the Multiverse and rather than refute all of the failed ways of trying to understand quantum theory. We're just going to take seriously what the equations of quantum theory say what we are compelled to think about Quantum Theory given the experiment is that

Single possible thing that can happen does happen. This means that there is no inherent uncertainty in the universe because everything that can happen actually will happen. It's unlike some things will happen in won't happen. Everything happened. Now you occupy a single universe and in that Universe when you roll the dice it comes up a to but we know somewhere else in physical reality. It comes up a one somewhere else three or four or five and a six

if I'm rolling two dice then the universe in which they sum up to.

2 2 is less than the number of universes in which we roll a 7 because that can be three or four or five and a two and so on. So the number of universes still does correspond to what we calculated the probability.

Yes. This leads to what George calls the decision theoretical way of understanding probability within quantum theory decision. Theoretically means you assume this proportionality between the universe's this way of splitting things up. So if you're rolling two different dice, then the universe is

portion themselves into measures and what a measure is is two way of talking about infinities.

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