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The Pomp Podcast
#574 Will Bitcoin Break Out Of The Accumulation Phase?! w/ Will Clemente
#574 Will Bitcoin Break Out Of The Accumulation Phase?! w/ Will Clemente

#574 Will Bitcoin Break Out Of The Accumulation Phase?! w/ Will Clemente

The Pomp PodcastGo to Podcast Page

Anthony Pompliano, William Clemente III
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18 Clips
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Jun 5, 2021
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Episode Transcript
0:02
What's up, everyone? This is Anthony Pompeo. Know most of you know me as pump. You're listening to the pump podcast, simply the best podcast out there. Now, let's kick this thing off. Will Clemente is a finance major at East Carolina University. His quickly become one of my favorite writers on all things, Bitcoin, including deep, Dives on various on chain analytics, you can subscribe to Wills new. Email newsletter in the link in the description. In this conversation, we discuss this week's sideways movement. The on chain metrics, who's selling? And who is buying
0:32
Much much more. I really enjoyed these weekly conversations with will and I hope you enjoyed this one as well. Before we get into this episode though, I want to quickly talk about our sponsors. First up is revolute, I've partnered with revolute, which is a finance app in the United States in the UK because they say that the simplest way to access crypto, they're putting their money where their mouth is too, you can sign up and make three card transactions and get $15. That's right. $15, what can you do with the $15? You can exchange for Bitcoin or any other tokens revolute supports? Yep.
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3:02
Do go click on the link in the description and check out Amber group. Today again, click on that link in the description and go check them out. Let me know what you think. All right, let's get this episode, will I hope you enjoy this one? Anthony promptly. Ah, no runs pomp Investments, all views of him and the guest on his podcast, our sholay, their opinions, and do not reflect the opinions of Pop investment. You should not treat any opinion expressed by pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an
3:32
In of his personal opinion, this podcast is for informational purposes. Only
3:41
All right, guys. Bang, bang. I've got will here with me. They so much. How you doing, man?
3:47
Well, have a self Punk has Miami
3:48
go, I'm doing alright. Great way to start off a Saturday morning, little on chain metrics. Let's Just Jump Right In for, for the week, it seems like we basically are just trading between like 30 2014 thousand dollars and it's like range-bound explain a little bit. Kind of how you see where we are right now.
4:06
Yeah. So you know, when you're just looking at just the order books, I mean there's a lot of by order set between, you know, like 32 to 30k and there's a lot of by order set between 40 to 42 and that range. So just looking at that alone, we're going to need a lot of volume to kind of break out in either direction and until then, we're just kind of range bound. So, you know, we're kind of in this in the zone where it's almost like no man's land.
4:35
No one wants to take, you know, a directional trade and either in either way, because people are just waiting to see, you know, kind of, kind of what the market is saying. We've had relatively low volume now, heading into the weekend, weekends are always lower volume than weekdays. So it'll be interesting to see perhaps if we have any moves with low liquidity. But yeah, for now and we're just pretty much rain down range bound. And it's one of those things where, you know, am I in my humble opinion, this isn't where you
5:05
You kind of, you know, take any trades, you just, you just kind of sit it out, maybe trade the range. Maybe, you know, pick up some at the bottom of the range and then takes them off at the top of it. Aside from that. I think you're just waiting for like confirmation in either
5:18
direction. And what talk a little about the Futures open interest. That's super interesting that that you kind of called out that it's pretty flat.
5:26
Yeah. So after we had that big, you know, liquidation event, whatever was like, two three weeks ago now the Futures open interest is
5:35
That's just completely flat. We've seen a come back a little bit but not not substantial at all. And then the Futures contracts. Like I'm, you can go in and see, you know, the number of contracts that have been opened. And since we had that drop, I mean, it's pretty much just dead for anybody that as subscribe to the newsletter. If you look on that first picture, that's up there. That bottom part of the other chart, that that's the Futures Contract. So you can see after we had that big liquidation event. I mean, no one, no one wants to
6:05
step in here. People are just waiting to see what the market is telling them at this
6:08
point. Yeah. And it also feels like I know you've called out the dry powder and stable coins. And like, there's just a bunch of stable coins that are just sitting there. I'm assuming waiting until people know, you know which direction to take but what are you seeing on the stable coin dry powder
6:25
yes o glass on has his metric called stable coin Supply ratio. And all it does is it takes a ratio of the stable coin market cap to Bitcoins.
6:35
Tap. And so the way you can kind of think of this is when the when the metric goes down, there's more stable coins in relation to Bitcoins, right? So seeing this metric really. Take a dive down in the last two weeks I think since twofold. First of all, obviously Bitcoins market cap is gone down a little bit but also the fact that there's a lot of stable coins and I think that kind of illustrates that, you know, there's money sitting on the sidelines, similar to what we were just saying that.
7:05
That's kind of waiting to see, you know, a directional Trend in the market. So I've heard from a couple people that kind of deal with institutional investors that, you know, they're looking to get lower bids filled, you know, perhaps and, you know, the 20s, right, but if they see that confirmation to the upside, you know, if we have a solid break into, you know, the upper 40s, you know, then they're then they're more willing to step in, you know, once they see the momentum, that that is going back to the
7:35
Side, but I think for now, people are just kind of playing chicken and you see that not only the Futures contracts, but also the stable coins. It just seems like people are just waiting out on the sidelines for now.
7:47
Yeah. And you have this chart where there's these like clusters of price distribution and kind of where a lot of volume trades. And I know that you've called out previously between fifty three thousand and fifty nine thousand dollars. There's a ton and then also previously, between seven thousand eleven thousand.
8:05
But it feels like you're seeing and third one form here kind of in this this range. So, talk a little bit about those price clusters and how people should think about what that really means.
8:16
Yeah, for sure you're so this metric is it's called you txo realized price distribution and it's just this kind of fancy term for you're looking at this, this profile. If you were to flip the chart, vertically, instead of horizontally, you're basically looking at a volume
8:35
If I love the on chain of the Unchained volume that not exchange volume, but on chain. So it looked like you were saying, we had this big kind of distribution zone between 53:59 K. And you know, that was why one of the reasons why I was pretty bullish, when we were in that sound, because it looked like a really strong Zone support, we had ten and a half percent of Supply, had moved above between 53 and 59 K. Yeah. Once
9:05
Once we lost that 53k Mark, and it was pretty much straight down from there and then we had another convict support at 47 drop from there. And then now we've kind of found this this range in call it. You know once again 32 to roughly 40 K is what the on chain trans actually going. This is saying as well. So in the zone, we've had about 10 10 and a quarter percent of Supply exchange, which is yeah, when you
9:35
For anybody that subscribes to the newsletter. And I'm sure that we'll throw in the charts and as well for this video, but you'll see these three very distinct clusters. So you have that one between 53:59 K. This one between 30 to 40 K. And then you also have one from earlier on in the bull market, where, you know, perhaps someone even consider this the bull market but between between 7 and 11 K, like you were saying. So that's about 19 percent of supply.
10:05
Bye. And that's like a huge supports out there. I don't see us going that low, but if we were to lose, you know, just to, you know, kind of stay neutral if we were to lose the 32k, you know, we kind of have a little bit of support and like 26 and then you're looking at some perhaps and around 22 and then one last big support at 20K. So I would, if we were to break down out of this range, I would be looking for those especially
10:35
Lee 20K I think is I'm not saying it necessarily would get that low if we broke that, you know, broke down, but that's a really strong support Zone there but the on chain volume and then also I know that's a big technical support as well where you know, obviously that was the previous all-time high. So they'll be a spot that a lot of people are looking to buy as well.
10:58
How'd it? And then in terms of where the selling is coming from, it feels like it's just all new coins, right? I know you've called out in the
11:05
The analysis, kind of the one two, three month old coins and also three to six months. So what's going on there?
11:11
Yeah. So, you know because of, you know, the Bitcoins openledger we can track all the different cohorts ages of the coins. You can see, you know, when coins move and then when that when coins move out of a wallet, they're considered spent. So just looking at, you know, the different cohorts of coins by age. You like you said, we're seeing a lot of selling between that that one, two, three month.
11:35
Three to six month. So perhaps you know these are funds that may be accumulated in you know the 10 to 20 K Band last year at the end of last year and then also, you know, in that upper 50 to 60 K range and those coins, of course, are selling at a loss. But I think, you know, one thing to take away is that it's a lot of the selling is coming from newer Market, participants rather than people that have been in this market for
12:05
A long time and you can see that through this metric called dormancy which basically just just looks at the amount of. It's not necessarily an average of the of the coins of the age of the coins as a different metric. But this is looking at something called coin days destroyed. So if you if you have a coin in wallet for one day it has one coin day and then once it moves, it has one coin day destroyed or if it's in a wallet for 10 days and then it moves out of the wallet, then has 10 coins.
12:35
Destroyed. So, this is looking at a ratio of that, to the to unchain volume and so you can kind of get this this clear signal. We're trending down since you call it. You know, January it's been younger and younger coins selling which I think is in, it is a important Trend to see where, you know, at the tops historically, it's been younger coins selling kind of towards it towards the middle to
13:05
Inning of the bull market and then you know, the older coins are coming in. I'm sorry, the older coins are being sold into strength towards towards the end of the bull market. So, I think the fact that we're not seeing a lot of, a lot of the older coins selling, I think it is some signal because these are the people that have been in the market, the longest. So I think they're the ones, they're the kind of the smart money in the space. If you, you know, if we start to see these older
13:35
Words, you know, three to five years, 5-7 years, 10 years. Plus if you start to see those people selling significantly, I think that's, you know, something to kind of raise an eyebrow to.
13:47
Yeah. And then what about realized losses as the kind of as people sell?
13:52
Yeah. So realized losses, it's just, you know, if you bought a coin at a higher price, sell it at a lower plate price, you've realized the loss, you know, if you bought it at a higher price and you're still holding then it's unrealised.
14:05
So you know, this is this is just saying people are selling at a loss and they have been since that big capitulation event and this is trending down though which is a good thing. So it looks like, you know, these coins are the weak hands are almost done sewing off and you know, we're getting close to a bottom out and realized losses but very similar so /, which is
14:30
It's similar to that instead of looking at the raw number of the losses. It's taking a ratio of the Prophet to loss of the coins throughout the day and we're getting close to broke. Even breaking. Even on that, there's this for anybody in the newsletter, you'll see this black line going across kind of in the middle of the screen. And, and that's kind of the threshold for breaking even, which is one of ratio of one and we're kind of right on that, right? On that line so that that's something I'd be looking looking.
15:00
Watch as well as you start to see. You know, whoever is going to capitulate sell at a loss as kind of done so, and we're still in this, you know, while we're ranging, you have, you know, still some of these some of these coins that, you know, are looking to exit the market are selling at a loss. While you're seeing the long-term holders come in and scoop those coins up so that's kind of like the process that we're in. Where I know we've been saying this for weeks now but it still is we can selling just wrong hands. It's just you know
15:31
Question of how long is that process going to
15:33
take? Obviously, there's people selling there's somebody else buying and it seems like those are all long-term holders.
15:40
Yeah. A hundred percent. So, you know, I put together this chart where you're comparing the long-term holder Supply Holdings versus the short term holder Supply Holdings. So glass though, for this uses a hundred fifty five day threshold, which comes out to 5 months to determine if
16:01
In entity is a long-term holder, and you're seeing those entities have been stacking really heavily while seems like the shorter term holders have been selling off pretty significantly and it's interesting because over the last month, the selling from the short-term holders as offset the buying from the long-term holders. But over the last week we've actually started to see the long-term holders are now offsetting the selling from the short-term holders so it seems like we're flipping
16:30
being back into this accumulation where either a you know the the long-term holders are buying more or be the short term holders are selling less but you are starting to get that transition from the short-term holders, overpowering the buying of the long term versus, you know, now we're starting to see long terms over the last week, stacking heavily than the shorter term. And that's something that I think I would like to see going forward.
17:00
In. So that's age that. Then if we're going to talk about like this size of the cohorts, you've had this pretty clear downtrend now for like two and a half months to actually I'm sorry like more like three months where we've seen less and less wails coming in on the blockchain. And some of this is, you know, so for glass node uses a thousand VTC threshold for no calling someone a whale.
17:30
And so part of this is possibly just these entities reshuffling their Holdings into smaller wallets because you've seen a while, the whales over a thousand BC has been trending down. There's also been a pretty significant move up in a hundred to a thousand BTC entity. So I think there's there's definitely some some reshuffling of Holdings there. But overall the trend of and of these
18:00
Over 1000 BC has been trending down while retail continues to Trend up. It seems like, you know, retail is really been stacking harder than a almost ever have in the history of Bitcoin. I'm into this, you know, I had this chart and it shows this apply held by these these smaller entities, and I mean, it's pretty much just like vertical right now. So I think that, you know, that it's two things, a it's bullish for Bitcoin adoption because you have whale scaling out. Well,
18:30
Retail is scooping up those coins and obviously the coins are getting you know more widely distributed. So there's that aspect of it where I think it's foolish for adoption but I think in terms of price you're gonna you're going to need to see a joltin in Wales to kind of do the heavy lifting to get us that momentum back to the upside and you know possibly that that's something that we'll see if we have a definitive move to the upside out of this range. We'll have to wait and see but I would be if we if we have a strong
19:00
Where this range and we start to get some momentum back to the upside. I'm going to be watching that, that number of whales chart closely to see, you know, perhaps some of that money that that's waiting to get a physician now and try to get the best position possible if they get that confirmation, perhaps, if they'll step in, but that's something I'm keeping an eye on for sure.
19:21
Got it. So, really, this summarize for this week, it's basically we're in this kind of range-bound, you know, kind of trading, there's not tons and tons of volume.
19:30
Umm when it comes to Futures open interest, there's not tons of real takeaways. In terms of where we're going directionally it kind of feels like when we break out it's going to be violent in either direction, and people are just kind of waiting and seeing which direction that's going to be. But if we do break out to the upside, you know, you'll see people Pile in. And then also on the downside you also see people kind of Pile in. It's just right here. People are a little uncertain about the the short-term future.
20:00
Yeah. Yeah that's my base case and I think you know you just need one person to kind of step in and make the move and then people will follow in either direction I guess but it's supposedly, there's a announcements. I saw Bitcoin conference put out something that Jack mahler's is making a big announcement today around 4:00. So maybe that'll be the announcement that pushes us up. We'll see what happens.
20:25
Absolutely. All right. What a what's the one thing you're going to be looking for over the next?
20:30
Tweak in terms of metrics, is there one thing specifically you're looking at? Are you just going to kind of look at it in totality?
20:37
Yeah, I think you know this stuff is you can't necessarily look at one thing, you kind of have to have. I like to look for Confluence across multiple things where, you know, if you have several indicators that are preferably uncorrelated that are all telling you the same thing. And then you also kind of looking at the technical side of things where I look
21:00
mostly at the arm chain data. But I also look at, you know, obviously some of the, some of the technicals and if you have, you know, your fundamental analysis on chain in technicals all lining up kind of saying the same thing. You know, statistically, the odds of that are way higher. So I think, you know, I think you need to look at multiple things, but if I were to just kind of pin it on a few,
21:25
I think the whales is definitely one thing like seeing that that jolt upwards and Wales also looking at the Futures open interest, you know, if we start to have a little move up and then all of a sudden, all this leverage piles in which is possible, I don't think that would be super bullish short-term because all of a sudden, you have this big incentive for Wales to flush that leverage out and scoop up some cheaper coins. If they can liquidate all the all that Leverage
21:54
So that's something to look at. And then I'm just still following this trend with the short to long term holders. That's kind of it's interesting because you in 2017, obviously, we have a very small sample size with these Cycles, but in 2017, there's this kind of cleared economy where the long term holders were selling off into strength throughout the whole cycle. Short-term holders were, you know, buying the whole way up basically buying the smart money's bags, the whole way up,
22:24
But in 2013 you saw that and then when we had we had to double pumps so yeah a big parabolic Advanced draw down like I think Peak to trough is like 80% or something like that in a relatively short amount of time I think I think a few months and then we had the second parabolic Advance between those you saw something similar to what we're seeing now where the shorter-term holders are selling off in the middle of the cycle and then the long-term holders are coming in and stepping in the cycle. I think this is something we
22:54
Touchdown last week, but that's a trend that I'm interested in seeing how that continues to play out for moving forward. Because from that, from that aspect, this is definitely not looking like like 2017.
23:09
Absolutely. Where can we send people to find you on the internet or subscribe to the newsletter that you're writing?
23:16
So I'm on Twitter at a w Clemente II and then I do a newsletter every week, the Friday one goes out with pomp obviously. And then one day I do it on my channel. My channel is BTC by WC3, dotsub stack.com. You can subscribe there and I'm always putting stuff out on Twitter. I just, you know, whenever I see something interesting while throw it out there. So if you want to follow me on there and you know, I answer, I'm super active on Twitter. So if you have any
23:46
Ins or, you know, if you want to say, hey will this is something really cool that I saw? And I love to chat with anybody about the market. So feel free to reach out.
23:55
Hi. I think you're doing a fantastic job. I think everyone else is really enjoying it. So keep up the great work and we'll do it again next Saturday.
24:01
Appreciate it, Angel, fun of mine.
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